Cullen “Don’t Call Me Jennings” Jenkins is one of many unsung heroes among Green Bay’s top-five defense.

‘Tis the season for playoff-caliber football. If your team is still competing for one of the twelve playoff spots, this time of year is fraught with disappointment, relief, ecstasy, anxiety, and all points in between. If your nerves are feeling a little shot, add a shot (of rum or brandy, your choice) to your grandmama’s egg nog and sink into an easy chair. That might help you get through December, Cowboys fans. For me, I like watching my game leaning forward, volume blasting, hands resting on my laptop’s keyboard to furiously research Ryan Grant’s yards per carry or Charles Woodson’s latest Pro Bowl tally (vote for him now, damn it!). However you do it, do it with your eyes peeled. You won’t want to miss the final leg of the 2009 season. First up, a preview of Sunday’s critical Green Bay/Pittsburgh showdown at Heinz Field followed by a preview of and prediction for every other game. Got something to say? Put together some sentences in the comment box below, or if you prefer, via e-mail: selfserve@gmail.com. For all you Twitteratis, you can follow me @greenbayblog.

PACKERS AT STEELERS

1. Remember the children’s game Chutes and Ladders? It’s really a simplistic design: some spaces allow the player to leapfrog the linearity of the board to a more advanced stage, and others drop the player to a previously traversed location to force them to travel the same path once more. The Packers have been climbing ladders the last five weeks; in that same time span, the Steelers have been doing nothing but falling down chutes. Green Bay has beaten Dallas, San Francisco, and Baltimore at home, as well as road games against divisional rivals Detroit and Chicago to rise to 9-4 and in position for a wild card berth. In fact, a win Sunday coupled with either a Dallas or New York Giants loss would clinch a playoff position. The Steelers have lost to AFC West doormats Oakland and Kansas City, as well as one loss to each of their AFC North competitors, the Ravens, Bengals, and Browns. The skid places Pittsburgh at the precarious record of 6-7. A loss to Green Bay doesn’t mean the season is mathematically finished (unless both Denver and Jacksonville win), but let’s be honest: this is a season-breaker for the Steelers. Lucky for them, the NFC North has been kind this year–Mike Tomlin’s crew is 3-0 against the division so far this year.
2. Last week, I suggested that despite the cold weather, field conditions likely resembling a flooded corn field, and questionable blocking, Green Bay would defy convention and rely on a pass-first game. As Ryan Grant ran for two touchdowns and controlled the pace of the game, I hope you realized never to listen to me. Seriously, I was as shocked as you to see Aaron Rodgers throw for less than 200 yards and no touchdowns for only the second time in his short career and first since November 9th of last year. This week has to be the week that my analysis proves true, right? All the conditions present at Soldier Field last week (choppy turf, cold weather, hostile crowd) will be there, if not worse, at Heinz Field this week. Most importantly, this game matches the top two run defenses against each other. Pittsburgh (allowing 84.9 ypg) holds the top ranking by the slimmest of margins over Green Bay (allowing 85 ypg). Now that I’ve said that, you can certainly expect Ryan Grant and Rashard Mendenhall to combine for four touchdowns.
3. Despite those lofty rankings, both squads will be missing key contributors to their defense. Pittsburgh lost defensive end Aaron Smith to the IR list earlier this year and the captain to their high-flying schemes, safety Troy Polamalu, is out yet again with a second injury to the same knee that felled him earlier this year. Green Bay is without cornerback Al Harris and outside linebacker Aaron Kampman, both done for this season with knee injuries. News from this week included defensive tackle Johnny Jolly being indicted a second time for felony possession of codeine in Houston. No word as of yet from the commissioner whether or not he will face disciplinary action from the league (and thereby jeopardizing his playing time for this game as well as the rest of the season), but the guess here is that the NFL will wait to see how the trial unfolds and move from there. I’ll keep readers abreast of anything from the Jolly situation if I read more. As for the effects of these situations on the defenses, I expect that Dick Lebeau and Dom Capers, the two modern wizards of the 3-4 scheme, will compensate adequately.
4. And I’m sure plenty of those defensive players are licking their chops at the potential of throwing the opposing quarterback to the turf. Rodgers, as is well documented, leads the league in sacks taken with 48. Ben Roethlisberger is third on the list with 38 sacks taken. Part of the reason these two quarterbacks, who otherwise incredibly efficient and capable under center, falter in the realm of sacks is because they use their legs to keep plays alive. I’m certain you’ve seen footage of Roethlisberger in last year’s Super Bowl getting twisted and spun by the jersey, assuredly about to take a drive-killing sack, only to pop out of the grasp of the defender to launch a first-down toss to Santonio Holmes. Rodgers loves plays that work him out of the pocket, and he’s got the cognizance to try and move the chains with a run–his 283 yards rushing are the most by any non-running back in the league.
5. You might hear a lot this week about the wide receivers in this game and for good reason. Hines Ward and Holmes have combined for 2,023 yards and 9 touchdowns this year. Donald Driver and Greg Jennings have combined for 1,742 yards and 9 touchdowns. Third options Mike Wallace (Pittsburgh) and James Jones (Green Bay) are also effective targets. But what I find most compelling is the comparison between tight ends. Pittsburgh’s Heath Miller is one of the league’s most underappreciated tight ends.
   

   Didn’t I tell you this kid would be special? DIDN’T I?

   A first-round draft pick only a few years ago, Miller is a complete package: a solid run-blocker with soft hands who acts as a wonderful safety valve and red zone target. He has 580 yards and 5 touchdowns on a team loaded with offensive talent. Jermichael Finley is not your typical tight end. He’s not much of a polished blocker and his route-running is sometimes a little lazy. But I’ve been raving about his athleticism all year for good reason. His unusual height and jumping ability make him more of a wide receiver. He’s scored 3 touchdowns on the year to go with 488 yards, nearly a third of which he’s registered in the last two games.

6. Despite what the standings say, this game will be as easy to win for Green Bay as it was easy for Hitler to take Russia. I’m thinking this is one of those games where Roethlisberger finds Ward in the back of the end zone with six seconds remaining for a ridiculous comeback win. I’ve been to Heinz Field many times (easy to do when you go to the University of Pittsburgh) and the crowd there is dedicated and raucous. I saw a Packers/Steelers preseason game with my buddy Sean a few years back and we were amazed to see the amount of people tailgating five hours before kickoff. Of a preseason game. Against a non-rival. I don’t care if the Penguins just won a Stanley Cup–Pittsburgh lives and dies by Steelers football. And they cannot abide a sixth straight loss. So it is written; so it shall be.
   Steelers by four.

WEEK FIFTEEN PREDICTIONS!

COWBOYS AT SAINTS
Will DeMarcus Ware return in time for this game? Will Tony Romo break his December curse? Will the Saints continue their undefeated season? Will Marques Colston score a touchdown and inexplicably break character, pulling a T-shirt cannon out from behind a camera man, firing wildly into the crowd shirts that say “STONE COL’ COLSTON!” In order: 50-50 shot, absolutely not, of course, and the world can only hope.
Saints by ten.

BEARS AT RAVENS
Bears fans may just want to avoid this one and take in a Blackhawks game or something. There’s less of a chance of a game-breaking turnover in one’s own zone from Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews than from Jay Cutler and Matt Forte. By the way, Rex Grossman led the Bears to the Super Bowl in 2006 with 3,200 yards passing, 23 touchdowns and 20 interceptions. Two years later, he was unceremoniously dumped and now plays backup in Houston. This year, Jay Cutler has thrown for 3,000 yards, 19 touchdowns and 22 interceptions. One of these players is a Chi-town pariah; the other is the supposed savior of the franchise. Go figure. Bears fans are so delusional when it comes to quarterbacks they talk themselves into believing Jim McMahon is one of the top-20 quarterbacks of all time. Or, at least, had one of the top-20 mullets of the 80’s.
Ravens by nine.

PATRIOTS AT BILLS
I think the last time the Bills won in this series, Drew Bledsoe had yet to be eviscerated by Mo Lewis. Poor Buffalo fans–they sit through their ownership giving an extension to Dick Freaking Jauron (I think I gave unsuspecting Bears fans more cold sweats), then axe him mid-season, replace him with a guy named Perry, then try to woo egomaniac/lover of bad tans Mike Shanahan even though everyone knows Shanahan can get more money elsewhere. Buffalo, city of beloved hot sauce, you deserve better. Since this is the equivalent of the Bills’ Super Bowl, expect Terrell Owens to actually show up and convince the city’s media into writing a series of fawning “Maybe T.O. deserves a new contract!” articles. It won’t matter. Randy Moss is going to steal the limelight after being emasculated last week, and if that should fail, the Bills don’t have any linebackers to cover Wes Welker over the middle. Don’t make me laugh, Paul Posluzsny.
Patriots by seven.

CARDINALS AT LIONS
Best line I heard about the Lions came from ESPN.com writer Jeffri Chadiha: “Bill Bidwell owns the Cardinals 363 days a year. The 49ers own them the other two days.” Are the Desert Birds an iffy proposition after being swept by San Fran this year and losing their last two roadies after starting the year 5-0 away from Glendale? Hardly. This is the same team that went 10-6 last year, had a bottom-5 running game, and a secondary you could easily expose with heady receivers. I know their record belies this statement, but this year’s Arizona squad is improved on that team.

The effects of Daunte’s Madden Curse have continued to this very day. Just look at the uniform he wears.

Of course, all of this is moot if Larry Fitzgerald’s (Pitt alum!) knee prevents him from playing at his normal Mt. Olympus-level of excellence. I think if that knee crops up, we can safely hand over 2009 to the Madden Curse. Last year, EA Sports tried to avoid the whole story by placing a retired Brett Favre on the cover. We all know what happened there. So what do they do this year? Put a player from each of the Super Bowl teams on the cover, two tough-as-nails guys who rarely if ever miss time. And they both get knee injuries. WHAT OTHER SACRIFICES DO YOU DEMAND FROM US, MADDEN GODS? Lions fans are secretly hoping Madden ‘10 has Matt Millen on the cover. That’s not a bad idea, actually: allowing a bunch of fans to vote for a special Madden cover to appease their broken karma. You could call it Madden: Vengeance Edition. You’re telling me Detroit wouldn’t plunge further into debt to see Millen suffer a broken hip slipping on a freshly-waxed Hilton lobby floor?
Cardinals by thirteen.

BROWNS AT CHIEFS
Wow. I think I’d rather watch an Indians/Royals spring training match than this. Matt Cassel: 2206 yards, 13 TD, 13 INT, 8 fumbles (although only 1 lost!). Brady Quinn (projected): 1567 yards, 10 TD, 6 INT. Get ready for some high-flying action! I’ll give the Browns this much: after their upset against Pittsburgh last week, they’ve been moved from the iron lung to intensive care. They have fight in ‘em! What the hell, I’ll throw the Dawg Pound a bone: you Brownies are my UPSET SPECIAL! of the week. Don’t disappoint.
Browns by four.

49ERS AT EAGLES
There’s snow in the forecast for the mid-Atlantic region this weekend. How exciting to see DeSean “Bomberman” Jackson (that was the winning nickname, by the by) zip through the 49ers secondary like a snowmobile! Since I’ve yet to do so this year, how about recognizing Winston Justice on the right side of the Eagles line? Last year, he got brutalized in a nationally-televised game against the Giants in which he was personally responsible for 8 sacks given up to Donovan McNabb. He was benched thereafter and it seemed that Justice would be yet another high-draft-pick bust. He’s come back this year, rededicated himself to technique, and is a pretty decent fixture on a line that’s done a better job at keeping McNabb upright. To get to the playoffs, the Niners need to win out and hope the Cardinals lose to the Lions and Rams the next couple of weeks. They’re better off figuring out how to break the laws of physics and travel back in time to stop Brett Favre from throwing that last-second touchdown to former Eagle Greg Lewis in mid-October. Or resolving the Michael Crabtree silliness sooner. Or not pretending Shaun Hill gave the team a legitimate chance this season. Any of these things could be resolved with time travel.
Eagles by ten.

TEXANS AT RAMS
The secret to Houston winning is to have half a Matt Schaub. Last week, with a harness on his non-throwing shoulder, Schaub threw for over 300 yards in the first half, finding Andre Johnson time and time again down the field sitting in soft zones or exploiting tentative coverage in the secondary. With Steve Slaton lost for the year, even more pressure has been put on Schaub to perform. At 6-7, the Texans are unlikely to find themselves playing in mid-January, but they need to finish strong to keep that hype train going in Houston.

Computer error: Designation “quarterback” incompatible with program “St. Louis Rams.”

There’s no hype in St. Louis, except for what high draft pick the Rams are going to get next year. Might I recommend a quarterback, defensive lineman, wide receiver, safety…OK, anyone except running back. Even then, you may want to consider finding a replacement for when Steven Jackson snaps and pulls an Irsay, loading up moving vans in the middle of the night to escape. (Side note: last week, Keith Null started at quarterback for the Rams, which meant that live game updates showed things like “Null: 5/12, 60 yds, 1 INT.” I thought this was a computer error for the longest time until I realized it was actually someone’s last name. This is a pretty decent metaphor for the Rams’ quarterback situation.)
Texans by fourteen.

DOLPHINS AT TITANS
The Fins survived their knockout game last week, taking down the Jags (who seem to be intent on waltzing out of the playoff picture after last night’s breakdown against the Colts). They get the joy of facing the Titans this week in yet another knockout game for the AFC wild card. If the Dolphins win, it’s pretty much a two-team race between them and the Ravens for the final spot (assuming the Broncos can clinch, which is a big assumption at this point). If Tennessee wins, who the hell knows anymore. Guess what? It’s going to be the latter. Chris Johnson has given me no reason to doubt in his abilities. He’s having an mid-2000s LaDainian Tomlinson season right now. Vince Young may not be able to play this week, which will supposedly cut down on Johnson’s ability to break the perimeter since defenses won’t have to worry about protecting the back side of the play. Uh, have you seen CJ run? He makes the Roadrunner look like Fat Bastard.
Titans by six.

FALCONS AT JETS
This is cute. Jets fans are talking themselves into the playoffs yet again. Hey, Mark Sanchez might even play this week! Then again, they are facing an Atlanta team minus its best weapons, with gaping defensive holes up the middle that Thomas Jones can probably exploit, and thoroughly deflated after losing consecutive games at home. Oh, and they’re heading from the comforts of a dome in Atlanta to what will be a breezy, snowy New Jersey. Yeah, I think Jets fans can continue to play pretend for another week.
Jets by eight.

RAIDERS AT BRONCOS
Why does JaMarcus Russell have to re-emerge to sully an otherwise feisty Raiders squad? He’s a stubborn turd that refuses to be flushed. I guess in this scenario, Al Davis represents a broken and splintered plunger. Kyle Orton may find throwing downfield to Brandon Marshall and company will be a little more stifled this week against the Raiders secondary. This game will come down to whether it’s Knowshon or No-Show Moreno that is in the backfield. I like Denver this week, but I’d avoid putting money on it. Mostly because that would require me to watch a game that will most likely bore the hell out of me and anyone within a ten-block radius.
Broncos by seven.

BENGALS AT CHARGERS
Heartfelt condolences to Chris Henry’s family. There’s not much more to say than this is a very sad week for the Bengals. My GUFS colleague David Jacob covers the angles of Henry’s ill-fated end. Carson Palmer has suggested the Bengals dedicate the rest of the season to the memory of both Henry and defensive coordinator Don Zimmer’s wife Vicki, who unexpectedly passed away in October at the age of 50. The emotions will be high for this game, but I don’t know that it translates into a win, especially on a cross-country trip to face the hottest team not named the Saints or Colts. The Redskins lost their first game after Sean Taylor’s death a few years back. I assume a similar tale to unfold, but the Bengals have more on their minds right now than the outcome of the game.
Chargers by six.

BUCCANEERS AT SEAHAWKS
This is the only late game that FOX is choosing to show. I think a re-run of Legend of the Seeker may draw higher ratings than Josh Freeman throwing the inevitable four interceptions and Matt Hasselbeck getting bored and tossing jump balls to T.J. Houshmanzadeh. By the way, I know it’s a little weird to talk about with the death of Henry, but how angry do you think Housh is right now? That Bengals team sorely needs a wide receiver who can go over the middle and complete the offense. Nonetheless, they’re a playoff team, and T.J. “Houshamazilly” is in the Pacific Northwest watching a tandem of Justin Forsett and Julius Jones run into the pile for 1-yard gains every first and second down. Hope that contract is worth your malaise, T.J.!
Seahawks by ten.

VIKINGS AT PANTHERS (8:20 PM, NBC, SNF)

Old Man Winter will have to battle the elements this week in North Carolina.

The Vikes can clinch their second straight NFC North title with a win at Carolina, but it’s not a cinch for that to happen, even with the Matt Moore/Jake Delhomme sampler pack the Panthers will throw out at QB. The Vikings have had six road games so far this year and have won four of them: Cleveland, Detroit, St. Louis, and Green Bay. Of those four, only Green Bay can be considered close to a challenging team. Minny has dropped their two roadies against Pittsburgh and Arizona, both of whom succeeded by forcing Favre out of his comfort zone. I’m not saying the Panthers are a great team or that they’ll be able to pressure Favre consistently, just that it’s not a shoo-in that they’ll come out flat. Adrian Peterson is going through his first extended stretch of sub-par play in his career; on the flipside, Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams have been consistently attacking run defenses all year. This is their biggest challenge yet, facing that Williams Wall the Vikings have built in the middle. I still think Minnesota wins the division this week (by way of a GB loss) but I’m giving the game to Carolina in an upset.
Panthers by four.

GIANTS AT REDSKINS (8:30 PM, ESPN, MNF)
The Giants missed a massive opportunity to breathe life into their 2009 campaign last week in their gunfight against the Eagles. Their third straight NFC East battle has them going against the little sister of the group, the Washington Redskins, who just this week replaced their general manager and engaged in serious conversations about bringing in Mike Shanahan as coach. Yeah, it’s not like Jim Zorn’s balls were already in a vise, right? The Giants are too talented to drop this game, although they did just that in a similar situation in 2007. Coming off a game against the Eagles, the Giants got embarrassed in a week 15 primetime game against Washington, 22-10. Will history repeat itself? Maybe New York fans will want it to–that 2007 team went on to upset the Patriots in the Super Bowl.
Giants by twelve.

Last week (including yesterday’s game): 11-5
Overall: 142-66
Upset Special: 6-8