Rookie sensation Clay Matthews gives struggling placekicker Mason Crosby a few pointers in technique.

Welcome one, welcome all to week 14 in the NFL. We’re fast approaching the playoffs, and perhaps all the scenario charts and momentum-sapping news conferences have distracted us from a pretty important piece of news: barring any changes, the NFL is expected to end its revenue-sharing program (see bottom of page). This would be a minor disaster for the league and its fans. Smaller-market franchises like the Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars would suffer; the Minnesota Vikings may find it even more difficult to remain in Minneapolis; teams in economically-pinched areas like Cleveland and Detroit wouldn’t have that revenue to look forward to. You can argue that owners who re-invest their capital into their own franchise shouldn’t have to share their wealth with other franchises. The counter-argument is that these owners who reject the revenue sharing are ignoring long-term consequences for immediate satisfaction (and to what end, more money?). The NFL as a business model works so well because of the “any given Sunday” theory that its constituents have a largely equal opportunity to succeed–this is most important when selling the league to its consumers, the fans. If the NFL becomes like the MLB, and every year it’s the Giants, Patriots, Eagles, Redskins, Bears, and Cowboys pulling the strings, it’ll get stale and fans will leave in droves. OK – I’m off my pedestal for the week, but feel free to let me know what you think about this (as well as anything else!) in the comment box below, via e-mail: selfserve@gmail.com, or on Twitter @greenbayblog.

PACKERS AT BEARS

1. I remember a simpler, more optimistic time in America. No, it wasn’t before Lehman Brothers. I’m talking more recently, say, in September. This was a time when Bears fans across the nation were talking themselves into Jay Cutler, the surliest millionaire to ever step behind center (excluding Jeff George). Cutler’s got tools, like arm strength and confidence, but he lacks others, like decision-making, leadership, and apparently, inspiring play. Take a look at my fellow GUFS blogger Brian Lindstrom’s latest post. My favorite part is “the impending doom that looms in all Chicago fans.” Brings warmth to the heart on a blustery winter’s eve. Well, it’s not surprising that Chicago fans are so down in the dumps–their QB is massively overrated (and I hate to beat a dead horse, but how about that extension!), their RB looks more beat-up and demoralized than Rhianna after a weekend with Chris Brown, their defensive captain played about a quarter of football before being lost for the year, their defensive line gets no pressure, and already there are rumors that recent Notre Dame scapegoat Charlie Weis is angling for the offensive coordinator’s position. Other than that, though, everything’s great for the Bears!
2. If you’re specifically interested in the struggles of the Bears’ passing game, check out the Chi Tribune’s article here, which makes reference to the rocky road that Bears TE Greg Olsen likely faces on Sunday. He’s a great receiver. Still wish the Packers drafted him over Justin Harrell a few years back (whoops). Don’t think he’s going to get open much. Charles Woodson will more than likely provide the coverage on Olsen, now the Bears most prominent threat in the aerial game that Devin Hester’s status is up in the air with a muscle pull. I don’t know about you, but that two-catch performance for 1 yard against the Rams surely gives me confidence. Might be a fun game to compare tight ends–Jermichael Finley is coming off one of his better games of the season, a 7-catch, 79-yard, 2-touchdown showcase on Monday night against the Ravens. Both Olsen and Finley are red zone favorites for their respective QBs. Only difference is, I don’t know that Johnny Knox and Desmond Clark are going to be drawing too much coverage away from Olsen…
3. …And I don’t know that it would make much of a difference against the league’s best defense. Yep, Green Bay defended its rankings last week. The team ranks third against the pass and fourth against the rush, numbers so good I can hardly believe it’s happening without the team’s top pass-rusher and best cover cornerback. The Bears have been pretty respectable against the pass themselves, ranking 9th in the league, but it’s against the run where Chicago struggles. Teams are averaging 126 yards and a touchdown every game against a team that once staked its identity on the ability to stuff the rusher.
   

   Perhaps if Tauscher can somehow get into the end zone, the Packers can trade him in for a more agile lineman.

   These numbers, coupled with a bitter Illinois December wind, should encourage Green Bay to hand the ball to Ryan Grant 30 times and watch him work the chains, right? Well, probably not. The Packers are a pass-first team and would probably run the ball less than ten times if they weren’t worried it would affect the play-action schemes. Part of that is the relative lack of agility of their offensive line (guards Josh Sitton and Daryn Colledge are young and spry, but tackles Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher look like they have all the lateral mobility of pawns in chess) and part of it is their personnel–Grant and Ahman Green are not particularly elusive backs, and Grant is even less bruising than the 34-year-old Green. Sure, I’d love to see a perfectly executed counter trey like the rest of you, but it ain’t happening. If Green Bay wins this game, it’s because Aaron Rodgers throws for 250+ yards and a few scores, stays upright, and limits the mistakes.

4. Listen, I’m going to be honest: I really, really enjoy Aaron Rodgers. I haven’t always. I nearly threw my buffalo chicken sub against the wall of my freshman lounge wall when the Packers announced his name in the 2005 draft. During the magical 2007 season, when Favre got knocked out of the Dallas game and Rodgers was forced into action, I hung my slightly-intoxicated head in despair. But like so many others out there, A-Rod won me over with his badass performance in that Dallas game. And come to think of it, his facial hair during training camps always suggested a quarterback who was willing to get the job done. Now all he does is toss 3,400 yards three-quarters of the way through the season, slinging 25 TDs against 7 INTs. That projects to a season-end total of roughly 4,500 yards, 33 TDs, 10 INT and a 103.3 QB rating. In case you were wondering, Brett Favre won his first MVP in 1995 with 4,413 yards, 38 TDs, 13 INTs, and a 99.5 QB rating.
5. As good as Rodgers has been, that’s how shaky the Packers special teams have been. They have no returns for touchdowns, and although they haven’t given up any either, they’ve come awfully close. There have been no less than four returns against the Packers of over 65 yards (click this link for a provocative look at the potential causes). Field position is probably less important than in decades past owing to an increased efficacy using and reliance upon the passing game, but it is nonetheless an integral part of consistent winning. You know what else hurts field position? Blowing field Goals, which Mason Crosby has done about one in every four times he’s lined up this season. Officially, his numbers state he’s made 75.9% of his figgies this year making him 21st in the league among kickers who have attempted at least 15, which seems way too high considering that’s an awful ratio. I might have guessed even lower watching him the last few weeks. Other than quarterback, the kicker is the one player on the football field that feeds off of confidence. Little mental chicanery like “icing the kicker” may have some slightly correlative impact, but what’s more telling is how he looks after missing a kick: is he clawing to get his helmet off, cursing at himself? Is he calmly watching the fans boo (or cheer) and heading to the sideline like any other play? Is he hanging his head like Charlie Brown (who, as you’ll remember, had an awful track record with kicking footballs)? Watch Crosby when he inevitably misses on Sunday, you’ll see what I mean when I say that he’s a pile of nerves waiting to either be patched together or tossed in the garbage bin.
6. As much as it seems like I’m trying to point to all the signs that say VICTORY: GREEN BAY (hold on, that will come in just a minute), I have an unease about this game as I probably should. Lovie Smith, since his arrival in Chicagoland, has made it a top priority to beat Green Bay. And so he has: Smith has won 7 of the 11 games between the NFL’s oldest rivals, although he lost 21-15 earlier this year when Greg Jennings went streaking down the near sideline for a late touchdown. You can never, ever, ever count out a division rival, particularly at home. I think the Browns proved that point dramatically last night. It’s going to be a tough one, as it always is, but I think Mike McCarthy pulls off the role reversal and sweeps the Bears for the first time. The Pack are on a tidy little 4-game win streak right now, and 2009 is proving itself to be the season of the streak. Let’s keep it rolling.
   Packers by four.

WEEK FOURTEEN PREDICTIONS!

SAINTS AT FALCONS
Supposedly, Matt Ryan’s status in this game will be determined by the health of his O-line. I think that Sam Baker and Harvey Dahl may want to sit this one out on principle. The Falcons are flat-out done for the year and looked just plain flat against the Eagles last week. Microcosm of effort: the Falcons had the ball inside the five and looking at a first-and-goal situation. They run Jason Snelling between the tackles with a fullback lead four straight plays and fail. Nothing like a bit of predictability to ensure success! Speaking of predictable, how about the result for this game?
Saints by twelve.

LIONS AT RAVENS
The Ravens look to take the field and–flag on the play! A week after combining efforts with the Packers to accumulate the most penalty yardage in a game in over three decades, Baltimore hopes to avoid being flagged for pass interference. They lead the league by far in calls against them for PI, but luckily for them, Detroit hasn’t exactly been lighting up opponent scoreboards. Calvin Johnson is a nice player, but the second leading receiver is running back Kevin Smith with 396 yards. Brandon Pettigrew is still in third place on the team’s receiving leaderboard despite his season ending three weeks ago with a knee injury. Look for the Ravens to do what the Steelers haven’t done in months: beat up on the weaklings of the league.
Ravens by fourteen.

BRONCOS AT COLTS

Kyle Orton looks to be the first QB to lead Denver to the playoffs since Jake Plummer. Wait, what?

The AFC South has existed as a division for eight years; the Colts last week ensured they would win the division for the seventh time in that period. Nothing like a little quarterback stability to produce consistent winning, eh Denver? After shipping Jay Cutler off to Chicago, Kyle Orton transformed from the quarterback nobody believed in into the man who led the Broncos to a stunning 6-0 record. Then the Ponies stumbled for four consecutive games, Orton got hurt, and Phil Simms had to watch his son extinguish any hope for raising a Super Bowl winning quarterback. Can any Denver fan say for certain whether or not Kyle Orton is their quarterback of the future? Can any Denver fan say for certain whether or not Knowshon Moreno is their running back of the future? The Broncos still have two home games upcoming against divisional dregs Oakland and Kansas City that they should win. They also have two road games against divisional leaders, this one and in two weeks at Philadelphia in the Brian Dawkins Memorial Bowl. They won’t win the division, but they look to be in decent enough shape to snag a wild card. On the flip side, Indy still has the motivation to capture home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, which they could and will do with a win.
Colts by ten.

BILLS AT CHIEFS
Aren’t you bored by this game already? Do the Chiefs have an identity? Everyone thought KC was on the up-and-up after hiring Todd Haley and trading for the New England Matts, Cassel and Vrabel. Cassel has looked skittish and far from the savior Chiefs fans expected, while Vrabel has looked old–which is exactly the reason the Patriots were willing to toss his salary into the deal so quickly. Drafting the last two years produced first-round pass rushers Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey. Jackson and Dorsey have combined this year for a whopping 0 sacks, and Dorsey is now well out of position as a 3-4 defensive end instead of a 4-3 defensive tackle where he belongs. The Bills, on the other hand, don’t have enough offensive cohesion for the umpteenth year in a row, and their poor defense gets hung out to dry week in and week out. Hopefully Jairus Byrd will at least get the recognition he deserves in the form of a Pro Bowl vote. Byrd leads the league with 8 interceptions, or roughly one interception per two Terrell Owens drops.
Bills by three.

PANTHERS AT PATRIOTS
I’m a huge fan of westerns, and there’s an old-timey line that sticks out to me when I think of the 2009 Patriots season: “This town ain’t big enough for the two of us.” The Colts were determined to harness all the magic of the Hype Machine this year, and with the easily-lovable success of Drew Brees and the Saints, some teams had to be pushed down. This year, it was the Steelers and the Pats. I highly recommend you read this provocative ESPN article regarding the demythification of the Patriots. This game should scare Pats fans for a couple reasons: 1) This ain’t your year. Sorry. Getting shellacked by the Saints in N.O. is one thing, but losing to the Dolphins by one in a grind-it-out fashion isn’t an indicator for future success; 2) The revelation that Brady cracked multiple ribs in the Dolphins game, an injury that makes every single breath, every movement painful; and 3) That the one thing the Panthers do well is run the ball down your throat, which just so happens to be the Patriots Achilles’ heel. Add it up, and it’s my UPSET SPECIAL! for this week. I’ve bombed by last three Upsets, so naturally I will lose this one by angering the demi-god Belichick.
Panthers by seven.

JETS AT BUCCANEERS
No Mark Sanchez. No Thomas Jones. No problem? Of course not, not when you’re playing the Buccaneers. Anchored by defensive POY candidate and Pitt alum Darrelle Revis, the Jets’ pass D is tops in the game, and by a wide margin at that. Tampa Bay’s passing attack has actually risen a bit since installing wunderkid Josh Freeman at quarterback, but it hasn’t translated to much overall success and the team ranks second (only to the Lions) in interceptions thrown. It doesn’t add up to much success for Raheem Morris’ crew, but look on the bright side, Raheem! You can always find a new coordinator to fire after the game!
Jets by eight.

BENGALS AT VIKINGS
This game is the juiciest of the early fare and the one that will be captivating my attention (I mean, apart from GB/CHI). The Vikings lost for the first time in over a month last week (imagine that, the Vikings are forced to leave the state of Minnesota and they lose) when the Cardinals tore apart their vaunted defense for 30 points. The Vikes entered the game with 40 sacks and they left the game with 40 sacks. Worse yet, middle linebacker E.J. Henderson had to be carted off the field late with a fractured femur. He will obviously miss the rest of the year. Tyrell Johnson, their young safety, is also expected to miss the game. Do you think the Bengals will take the opportunity to exploit Minny through the air? Probably not!

Surprisingly, the Bengals haven’t had much need of this man in the last month and a half.

Since blowing out the Bears 45-10, the Bengals have averaged only 18.2 points a game as they move to a conservative, run-geared offense. So far, Cedric Benson and Larry Johnson have turned the scheme into wins (4-1 over that same stretch), but it’s yet to be seen what this team can really do against an upper-echelon squad. They faced their two best opponents by record, Denver and Green Bay, in the first two weeks. We’ll know more about the Bengals after two consecutive roadies send them to Minnesota and San Diego. Enough about the Bengals! The real story as everyone knows is Brett Favre, all the time! The “Silver Fox” nearly doubled his interception total in the desert last week, succumbing to his old habits of heaving the ball into triple coverage. “Favre acknowledged he was so enraged by a rough sack…that he simply gunned the ball downfield with no regard to the coverage.” That sounds like the Brett I’m used to! Maybe Brett only has about 11 games a season left in him. Remember last year when the Jets started 8-3 and everyone predicted playoffs, only to see them lose four of their last five games and miss the postseason? But that was then and this is now, and I’m thinking Brett might not go back to chuck-and-duck…at least, not until the playoffs.
Vikings by six.

DOLPHINS AT JAGUARS
Well lookie, lookie. Florida wants to play in the big-time. The Jags currently hold the 6-seed all to themselves but face a brutal schedule to finish out the stretch: at home against the Dolphins and Colts, then a road trip to Foxboro before ending the year at Cleveland. The Dolphins might actually be in the better position even though they’re a game back of Jacksonville, because they still have a shot at winning the division. Their schedule: @JAX, @TEN, HOU, PIT. OK, so it’s not a significantly easier path, but it’s still more manageable. Who would have thought at the beginning of the year that players like Chad Henne, Ricky Williams, David Garrard, and Mike Sims-Walker would have an impact on the AFC playoff picture? Poor Jacksonville, which ran its record to 7-5 last week with a win over the moribund Texans, also saw the smallest crowd ever at Alltell Stadium. A shade over 40,000 came out to support a potential playoff team. This does not bode particularly well for professional football in northern Florida. In the meantime, enjoy Maurice Jones-Drew doing what he does best.
Jaguars by three.

SEAHAWKS AT TEXANS

“He dreams of winning; he dreams of hair. Seattle can’t find a better man!”

Last week, after hearing “You Only Live Once,” I went back and listened to The Strokes’ third album First Impressions of Earth. “You Only Live Once” is such a complete, satisfying rock song that I assumed the rest of the album would be fantastic. It’s not. The Texans are the football equivalent of The Strokes. It’s so tempting to get sucked in to the excitement and promise of “12:51″ or “Reptilia” or Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub, but you simply have to resist. I keep picking the Texans time and time again – and trust me, I want them to experience the playoffs just as much for their fan base as what it would do to the fragile psyche of Cowboys fans – and yet, they never seem to put it all together! What would the Seahawks be if they were a band? OK, they’re Seattle, so we have to pick a grunge song. Hmm…”Black Hole Sun” is a little too pessimistic. I mean, the team is only 5-7. How about Alice in Chains’ “Rooster”? “Yeah, they’ve come to snuff the rooster / You know he ain’t gonna die!” That’s definitely about Matt Hasselbeck.

RAMS AT TITANS
A rematch of one of the most thrilling Super Bowls ever, a Super Bowl so tremendous it was even referenced in Cast Away! Um, this game might be a bit different. Kyle Boller will try his best to avoid the urge to throw the ball downfield and give the rock to Steven Jackson. Jackson is a saint for not holding a press conference where it starts off all normal and then he abruptly clutches the microphone and pleads to the nearest camera, “SOMEONE GET ME OUT OF HERE! PLEASE, SAVE MY TALENTS!” before Steve Spagnuolo sedates him and drags him off stage. Anyway, the Titans have Chris Johnson (1500+ yards rushing thus far) and the Rams have the 28th worst rush defense. Checkmate.
Titans by eleven.

REDSKINS AT RAIDERS
Break up the Raiders! Bruce Gradkowski has led the Silver and Black to two last-minute wins in three contests. I’d say they have a fair shake to win this home game against the Redskins. Can you imagine what Oakland would look like if they had a serviceable offense? I know Al Davis keeps drafting skill players early, but he keeps drafting the wrong ones! Oh well, Oakies. You still have Nnamdi Asomugha trolling the backfield, which has to make you smile. As for the Redskins, they played their hearts out last week and still came up short to New Orleans. Kicker Shaun Suisham was made the goat and cut a few days after shanking a 23-yarder with less than two minutes remaining that would have put the team up two scores. Jason Campbell looked eerily like a professional quarterback last week against a top-notch D. My guess is smoke-and-mirrors got the job done, and Washington comes out deflated after the letdown to New Orleans.
Raiders by seven.

CHARGERS AT COWBOYS
Getting nervous yet, Dallas fans? Perhaps you thought this would be the year you escape the nefarious clutches of Old Man Winter and won more than a game in December? It’s not shaping up to be a pretty January for the Team Once Claimed by America: they play San Diego, New Orleans, and Philadelphia in the coming weeks. The Chargers, on the other hand, are Team December. Annually they save their best for latest and swoop in to lock up a divisional title. They can’t achieve that feat for a few more weeks, not while Denver is still hanging around, but they look as good as any team in the AFC, don’t they? What’s most surprising is how little the team is relying on LaDainian Tomlinson and how much they are on Antonio Gates. LT (and to a lesser extent, Drew Brees) brought this team back from the unspeakable Ryan Leaf era but now finds his services being cut. Perhaps he’s lost a step and doesn’t have the explosion he once did, but I’ll take Tomlinson in my backfield any day. I’m not saying the Chargers are going to expose Dallas and romp to an easy win, but…OK, let’s just say that.
Chargers by thirteen.

EAGLES AT GIANTS (8:20 PM, NBC, SNF)
My girlfriend, a die-hard Giants fan, asked me the other night who I was picking for this game. I honestly didn’t know what to tell her. I’m a sparkling 10-2 predicting Giants games this year, so she’s developed a bit of a superstition about my feelings on Big Blue. Both teams are ranked top-ten in pass and rush defense. Both teams can move the ball through the air. The Giants seemingly have an advantage with Brandon Jacobs and the run game until you remember that the Eagles willingly implement a pass-first scheme. As abused as the Giants’ secondary has seemed at times, you have to consider that the Eagles will likely be without Kevin Curtis and DeSean Jackson. Do I trust Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant in a December roadie? Of course not. I’m banking on a Giants W and a Cowboys L that puts the top 3 teams in the NFC East at an 8-5 standstill with only three weeks to go. Joe and Troy may need to refill their Valium prescriptions.
Giants by three.

CARDINALS AT 49ERS (8:30 PM, ESPN, MNF)
The Cards can wrap up an NFC West title with a win in San Fran. Keep in mind a few things: Arizona is an insane 99-yard drive by Vince Young away from a perfect road record; the Cardinals will be looking for revenge after the Niners upset them in week 1; Larry Fitzgerald; the Cardinals now have a hard-nosed running game to balance that passing attack; San Francisco has a hard time pressuring the QB and Kurt Warner’s lethal when you give him more than four seconds to scan the field; seriously, Larry Fitzgerald. You’ll be telling your kids that there once was a period when the Cardinals were the Clippers of the NFL. Then you’ll have to explain to them what the hell a Clipper is.
Cardinals by thirteen.

Last week (includes yesterday’s game): 9-7
Overall: 131-61
Upset Special: 6-7