Nick Barnett anchors the middle for the league’s new number-one defense. Hear that, Stillers fans?

It’s the most wonderful time of the year. No, not Christmas season, with all its materialist trappings and sticky sentimentality–crunch time in the NFL. Five weeks remain and the weather is getting awfully chilly in places like Boston, New York, Denver, and of course, Green Bay. Lucky for you, you don’t have to do much more than grab a cup of hot cocoa (maybe Irish it up a bit) and catch the games. For many of you, it’s also nearing the end of the regular season in your fantasy football leagues. I think that’s probably one of the most underrated variables in the rise in popularity of football this past decade. I’m not talking about your Sunday night and Monday night games (although this year’s GB/MIN and NE/NO games rank 1 and 2 in most cable viewers ever); I’m talking about those crappy CAR/TB-type games on Sundays that are still getting watched because some guy is banking on a huge fantasy day from Steve Smith. I know on Sundays I love preparing my “battle station”: game on the television, computer on the lap with my browser open to my fantasy matchup and NFL.com, plate of [nachos, wings, cocktail shrimp] in front of me, remote to my right. It’s a great situation.

Alright, you don’t need any more prefacing from me. We’ll kick things off as usual with analysis on this week’s Packers game and then jump into the rest of the picks. A special note for those of you on Twitter: I’ll be tweeting instant analysis and reactions to Monday night’s game, so feel free to send thoughts, comments, and questions my way. As always, you can leave a comment in the box below, send me an email: selfserve@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @greenbayblog.

RAVENS AT PACKERS (8:30 PM, ESPN, MNF)

1. Last time the Packers were on national television…it was a week ago, on Thanksgiving. But the last time they were on national television in prime time, Brett Favre was doing some carving of his own, and the turkey was the Green Bay secondary. The Packers hit up Monday night action for the first time in two months and invite the Ravens to play with them. Baltimore just played a home game on Sunday night this past week, besting their divisional rival Pittsburgh in overtime, 20-17. Fun fact about this one: this is the latest in the year that “MNF” has ever been scheduled at Lambeau. “SNF” has done many games later in the year, but for whatever reason, the guys at ESPN (and before that, ABC) decided that nighttime in a Wisconsin December isn’t something they’d be interested in producing. By the by, weather.com is snow flurries for Monday in Green Bay.
2. About the fancy ranking systems in the NFL: the league determines its offensive and defensive rankings via one statistic, total yards. This is a decent indicator of talent level, but can also skew drastically and give misleading results. For instance, a team like Detroit who is constantly behind in the second half is going to produce higher passing totals out of necessity and because most defenses are going to be playing softer between the 20s. Similarly, a team who is often ahead in games will have lower rush yardage totals since teams will be abandoning the run to score points quickly. These disclaimers don’t really apply to the 2009 Green Bay Packers, as they’re not a crummy team and not an elite one, either. One has to be impressed with the ranking–it reminds me of the 1996 team that finished number one on both sides of the ball (and had Desmond Howard returning kicks to boot). Still – and here comes the bet-hedging – one has to admit that Green Bay hasn’t exactly faced the most imposing offenses. Cleveland, Tampa Bay, and Detroit twice account for some of those statistics, and it’s not as if Green Bay shut down Minnesota well (although they did bottle up Adrian Peterson). The Packers currently allow only 89.1 rushing yards per game. We’ll see how those numbers look at the end of the month after facing Ray Rice, Rashard Mendenhall, and Matt Forte.
3. Green Bay’s rise to the top of the league’s defenses is somewhat startling considering only two weeks ago, Al Harris and Aaron Kampman both left the game against San Francisco with knee injuries that would ultimately shelve their seasons. Packers players still think the league doesn’t appreciate what they’ve done: check out the candid quotes from Nick Collins and Tramon Williams in this Lori Nickel article from the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. NFL fans may not have noticed either as not a single Packer defender is currently leading his position in Pro Bowl voting (how does Charles Woodson not win that top CB spot hands down?). One thing’s for certain: this defense has a high-profile chance to legitimize itself as top-tier.

   Since this is a passing league first and foremost, as John Clayton likes to remind us, it would be smart to check out the quarterbacks. Joe Flacco is in his second year and despite improved passer rating, TD:INT ratio, yards per attempt, and yards per game, the Ravens offense is actually scoring less than last year’s squad that went to the AFC Championship. Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette investigates the causes behind this anomaly. One theory is that a lack of balanced playcalling is dooming the offense; another is that Flacco is trying to manage with an ankle injury. In either case, Baltimore is going to have a tough time getting points on the board without a solid game from their sophomore quarterback.

   

   Aaron Rodgers’ season is doubly impressive considering the physical abuse he’s taken (Detroit games notwithstanding).

   Green Bay has to be pleasantly surprised with Aaron Rodgers’ acceleration in his second full year as starter. Already the Packers have one more win than last season’s total, and 22 touchdowns versus 5 interceptions is a remarkable ratio that becomes even more astonishing when you consider that Rodgers has been sacked more than any other QB in the league. He’s on pace to have something like 4,500 yards and 35 touchdowns. That’s the kind of play from your signal-caller that gets you to the playoffs.

4. On the ground, Ray Rice is the guy Packers defenders have to be cuing in on. He’s been described as a “poor man’s Brian Westbrook” owing to his small stature and pass-catching abilities. Rice averages almost five yards per carry and has six scores on the year. Ryan Grant for the Packers has had a quietly productive season, averaging 4.3 ypc and scoring six times. He may find his running lanes stuffed by the massive (and massively talented) NT Haloti Ngata, who frequently commands double teams and opens up space for Ravens linebackers like Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs to shoot through and make plays. Suggs will likely miss this game, however. He is dealing with the effects of a torn PCL. Green Bay hopes to get continued solid play from their nose tackle Ryan Pickett, who has proven adept in his role as a 3-4 linchpin while first-round pick B.J. Raji eases into the rotation. Raji had his first sack two games ago and had a couple explosive bursts in the Detroit game, so he may finally be living up to the potential that prompted the Packers to draft him ninth overall this year.
5. Prediction time. I think Baltimore really feels the pinch of aging on their defense. Lewis isn’t the playmaker he once was, Suggs is out, and while Ed Reed can still lay a monster lick he isn’t as trustworthy in coverage anymore. The cornerback position, once a strength on this team, is a liability. The offense which ran 56% of downs last year seems to cast their fate with Joe Flacco’s cannon arm, only their receiving corps is underwhelming. I think Green Bay has a definitive advantage on both sides of the ball and I expect Lambeau to be intimidating come Monday night.
   Packers by six.

   WEEK THIRTEEN PREDICTIONS!

   EAGLES AT FALCONS

   

   Michael Vick: “criminally” under-utilized.

   Brace yourself, Atlanta-area animal shelters. Dogs will be a-howlin’ on Sunday when Michael Vick returns to the Dirty Dirty. Well, “returns” is literally true, but I doubt fans will see him for more than two or three plays. For whatever reason, Andy Reid thinks it’s a strategic move to put Vick in the shotgun and then have him run a quarterback draw or a slow-developing bootleg pattern. What the hell is the point of signing Vick to a multi-million dollar contract if he can’t even be trusted to plays that Bobby Hoying could do? That having been said, I love how Reid has been using LeSean McCoy (Pitt alum!) as an X-factor in the offense. It really wasn’t that hard to implement: he’s a younger, leaner version of Brian Westbrook. The balance and poise he showed scoring the two-point conversion on a shuffle pass last week was tremendous. The Eagles D shouldn’t have too hard of a time containing a Falcons offense missing its best players. Chris Redman! Jason Snelling! Come on down and support your Atlanta Falcons!
   Eagles by ten.

   BUCCANEERS AT PANTHERS
   Funny. I wrote in my intro to this post a hypothetical snoozer game of CAR/TB without realizing that very matchup occurs this week, only with Carolina as the host. What’s to be said about this inconsequential game? I don’t want to pick on Jake Delhomme any further, but his Wikipedia page includes a reference to his appearance in a Bojangles commercial where he is depicted as a “single-minded fried-chicken addict.” He’s already got zombified eyes and manages to throw interceptions off the cleats of his teammates. I don’t think we need to add “fried-chicken addict” to Jake Delhomme’s 2009 season review. What better reason than to make the Bucs my UPSET SPECIAL! of the week. Well, that and backup quarterback Matt Moore will actually be the one under center.
   Buccaneers by five.

   RAMS AT BEARS
   Oh man, Orlando Pace playing against his old team? This is huge! Except Pace, when not being ineffective, is sidelined with a groin injury. There goes that chance at vengeance! The Bears are pretty much done for the season and will miss the playoffs for the third straight season after appearing in Super Bowl XLI against the Colts. The Rams will likely be drafting in the top three next season and have little to play for. I have even less motivation to write something kind about St. Louis.
   Bears by seven.

   TITANS AT COLTS
   I wrote in this space last week how I had been oh-for-two in picking against the Colts the previous weeks and stubbornly, I picked against them again. What happens? Peyton Manning erases a 17-point deficit with help via the likes of Pierre Garcon and Chad Simpson (who?) and crushes my dreams. So now I’m faced with yet another quandary. Both Peyton and Vince Young are undefeated this year. Both accomplished huge comebacks (although in different methods) last week. I want to take the Titans…I’m having visions of Chris Johnson squirting through the Colts’ second and third levels of defense…but how can I do that after last week and the week before and the week before? The Colts are 11-0 and it’s about time I respected that. (Hell of a jinx on my part.)
   Colts by six.

   BRONCOS AT CHIEFS
   Ewww. AFC West intradivisional matchup. Pass the remote.
   Chiefs by two.

   SAINTS AT REDSKINS
   You may be tempted to call this game a “trap game,” but that’s false for two important reasons: one, the Redskins aren’t able to trap anything and two, trap games occur when a team is unfocused because of a bigger game on the horizon.

   

   Robert Meachem alone has more touchdowns than the combined “efforts” of the Redskins’ WRs.

   New Orleans schedule to finish the season goes like this: @WAS, @ATL, DAL, TB, @CAR. Not exactly a murderer’s row, although that Dallas game could maybe possibly be interesting. The Saints haven’t just been winners eleven-of-eleven times this year; they’ve been mopping the floor with their opponents: their average margin of victory is 16.9 points. So not only do you lose to New Orleans, you lose by three scores. Their closest game was – surprise! – a five-point victory at St. Louis that must have acted as a wake-up call, since they went out and demolished Tampa Bay and New England the next two weeks. I hate to go on about the Saints, but they’re truly a fantastic story. Their lowest scoring output of the year was 24 points against the Jets way back in week 4. The Saints defense is a better threat to score a touchdown than the Redskins offense. Six different players have at least three touchdowns on the year, and if you think this is a pass-wacky offense you’re wrong. The Saints have ran 707 plays from scrimmage to this date and 350 have been runs, 357 have been passes. Go ahead, try to find the weak spot.
   Saints by fourteen.

   RAIDERS AT STEELERS
   Raiders fans, always the subtle lot, sent another message to their beleaguered owner this past week. Can you spot the intent lurking through the subtext? Their last three number one draft picks: Darrius Heyward-Bey, Darren McFadden, JaMarcus Russell. Total contributions to the 2009 Oakland Raiders: 4 touchdowns, 13 turnovers. That’s how you build an organization! The Steelers, who actually do have an incredible streak of drafting impact players at multiple positions early in the draft (seriously, look at their last decade of drafting in the first round), have dropped three straight games to go from prospective division winner and Super Bowl defender to the cusp of wild card contender at best. What happened? Well, losing Roethlisberger for any period of time is damaging. But it’s also pretty hard to win when you give up 5 turnovers and only take away 3, especially when 2 of those 5 turnovers are returned for touchdowns and a third occurred in overtime. I expect Mike Tomlin to scale back the offense to the basics: misdirection power rushes and play-action crossing routes.
   Steelers by ten.

   TEXANS AT JAGUARS
   Looking for an AFC South feel-good story? Don’t look in Houston’s direction, as they’re the only team it’s tough to garner optimism over. Indy’s undefeated, Tennessee has their five-game win streak under VY, and the Jaguars, Houston’s opponent on Sunday, is 6-5 despite middling expectations and staring at a wild card spot. Not to mention, Maurice Jones-Drew has one of the best nicknames in all of sports, “Pocket Hercules.” Word of warning to Jags fans: your team is not proficient in stopping the pass. The Jags have given up 19 touchdowns through the air, good for 26th in the league. Additionally, they have only 9 interceptions, which puts them at 20th. Guess what Houston’s strength is? Matt Schaub’s 21 touchdowns put him only behind Drew Brees, Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers. Now that Houston has lost three in a row, the pressure is subsequently off them and they’ll go back to winning. I really wish I could make an Alex Rodriguez joke here about being anti-clutch. Damn Yankees.
   Texans by nine.

   PATRIOTS AT DOLPHINS
   I listened to Chad Henne give an interview earlier this week with Dan Patrick and boy, is he boring to hear. He sloughed through the interview with a semi-pissed tone like he didn’t want to be on national radio and would Dan please just let him get back to film study where he’s more comfortable. Not a fan. Meanwhile, the Patriots are 7-4 and have to listen to all sorts of stories about how their dynasty run is over, how years of trading players for draft picks are catching up to them, how their cheating ways are coming back to bite them (probably the dumbest argument), and so on. Whatever. This is still a top-5 AFC team that will make the playoffs and will probably beat your favorite team to infuriate you further. Look for Wes Welker to exploit his old team’s weakness, linebackers in coverage over the middle.
   Patriots by ten.

   LIONS AT BENGALS
   A battle of big cats! The Bengals disappointed their fan base two weeks ago by dropping a game in Oakland they absolutely had wrapped up. They bounced back by handling Cleveland 17-7 on the strength of 100+ yards rushing by Larry Johnson. Is Cincinnati the new Denver where running backs blossom into world-beaters? The Cedric Benson and LJ reclamation projects are going swimmingly in Cincy, giving hope to Marshawn Lynch’s agent. The Bengals are looking to keep pace with San Diego for the other first-round bye (since you and I and everyone else know the Colts are getting the first seed) and shouldn’t have much difficulty this week. On the horizon: consecutive roadies against Minnesota and San Diego, where the mettle of this team will definitely be tested. Also playing in this game: the Lions.
   Bengals by seventeen.

   

   At least they’ll look good losing.

   CHARGERS AT BROWNS
   A clash of great uniforms: the tasteful powder blue-and-white Chargers take on the beautifully autumnal brown-and-orange of Cleveland, and yes, that’s the best thing I can say about the Brownies right now. If you’re a Cleveland fan, are you rooting for Jake Locker at this point? Has everyone collectively given up on Brady Quinn? You know the next thing that will happen for this cursed franchise: Quinn will unceremoniously be shown the door, resurface somewhere like Buffalo or Seattle in two years and become a Pro Bowler. And then LeBron leads the Brooklyn Nets to an NBA title for extra spite points. Warning to Bolts fans presuming a walkover victory: since the beginning of the 2006 season, your team is 5-10 (.333 winning percentage) in games played east of the Mississippi River.
   Chargers by four.

   COWBOYS AT GIANTS
   This is likely the Giants season wrapped up in one convenient game. A win and they’re not only back in the wild card race but also only a game back of the Cowboys for the division and a season sweep in hand. A loss and they fall to .500 and three games behind Dallas and are likely making excuses for the severe drop in play. Reports are coming out this week that Eli Manning, after battling plantar fasciitis in one foot, has the makings of a stress fracture in the other. If Manning struggles in this game and the Giants lose, you have to start thinking about getting him off that foot and protecting your asset for future times, even if that means (gulp) putting David Carr in at QB. I have no idea what to think about Dallas. They’re one of those teams, like Green Bay, that doesn’t do well against stiff competition but beats up on minnows. We’ll see how they fare in a hostile environment. I assume since it’s December and Tony Romo is still taking snaps, they’ll fail this test.
   Giants by two.

   49ERS AT SEAHAWKS
   The 49ers can go ahead and gift wrap the division to the Cardinals by losing this one in Seattle. If they win, they run their divisional record to 4-0 (bet you didn’t see that coming) with a plausible chance at knocking off Arizona the following week and jump-starting their life-support chances at making the playoffs. This series is remarkably even, with Seattle holding a slim 11-10 lead all-time. I keep trying to talk myself into taking the Seahawks, but why bother? They don’t have a running game. Their best players keep getting injured. The 49ers have pock marks but their offense at least has multiple dimensions now that Michael Crabtree has emerged to balance the rushing attack of Frank Gore.
   49ers by eight.

   VIKINGS AT CARDINALS (8:20 PM, NBC, SNF)
   The first game to be flexed to Sunday night this year was an absolute shoo-in. The Vikes are 10-1 and would be the story of the NFC if it weren’t for the Saints’ incredible run. However, the best individual story is Brett Favre. No, not the way he ripped out the hearts of Packers fans everywhere, Temple of Doom style.

   

   Team/Player Photos: Green Bay Packers Team / Player Photos on Jul 25, 2010

   

   

   

   

   

   

   

   

   “Kali ma shakti! KALI MA SHAKTI!”

   It’s the fact that of all starting quarterbacks, Brett Favre, gunslinger extraordinaire, that bearer of a careless and arrogant passing style, has the fewest interceptions in the league with a mere 3. He’s thrown none in the last month of play and continues to show off his ability to both heave the deep ball and give it up to the checkdown pattern. Cardinals defenders better be wary. They looked confused and incapable last week against Tennessee when they allowed Vince Young to drive 99 yards in less than three minutes, completing three fourth-down passes. Worst of all, the front four got zero pressure. Minnesota’s offensive line is possibly the best in the game; Zona’s pass rushers like Calais Campbell simply have to force Favre out of his comfort zone or he will rip them to shreds. Will Kurt Warner start this week or will lingering post-concussion syndromes force Matt Leinart into starting action again? Leinart didn’t look too bad against the Titans in the second half, but he may be asked to do a lot more if Arizona’s line can’t make holes for Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells (my favorite running back tandem in the league). A lot of questions will get answered in this game, namely: is Arizona a legitimate playoff threat? Can Brett Favre continue his hot streak? Will Jared Allen ever cut his stupid mullet? This game will be a lot more fun to watch than it is to predict a winner. Screw it, I hate Minnesota.
   Cardinals by three.

   Last week (includes yesterday’s game): 10-4
   Overall: 122-55
   Upset Special: 6-6