San Francisco had the chance to draft Aaron Rodgers, but now this red practice jersey is the closest thing A-Rod gets to donning Niners gear.

Just in case you weren’t already feeling the sweet embrace of professional football on three nights of the week, here comes the best news: no more bye weeks! From now until January 3rd, we’re blessed with the full slate of 16 games per week. I consider this our national Thanksgiving present. Speaking of that lovely day saturated in faux cranberry sauce, sweet potatoes swimming in marshmallow fluff, and colloidal heaven (pumpkin pie), the Packers share a date with the Lions in Detroit. That means, for your reading pleasure, I’ll be hitting up two previews in one six-pack this week. It’s like two flavors melting in your mouth at the same time. I know you’ll dig on it.

Enjoy this week’s predictions, and if you got something to say drop me a comment in the box below, send me an e-mail at selfserve@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @greenbayblog.

49ERS AT PACKERS

1. You surely remember the drama of April 2005. Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers were 1 and 1A on everyone’s draft board for quarterbacks. The Niners held the first overall pick and went with Smith out of Utah; Rodgers memorably tumbled all the way to Green Bay at 24, making him new GM Ted Thompson’s first pick leading the Packers’ personnel decisions. Four other starting quarterbacks were taken in that draft: the Redskins picked Jason Campbell one slot after Green Bay went with Rodgers, the Bears picked up Kyle Orton early in the 4th round, Matt Cassel went to the Patriots in the 7th round, and the Bills selected Ryan Fitzpatrick with the 250th overall pick (out of 256). When you also consider that the likes of Charlie Frye, Derek Anderson, Adrian McPherson, and Dan Orlovsky were also drafted in 2005, it’s not exactly a QB-rich class, which may have prompted the Niners to take the best of a shaky lot. In any event, fast-forward three years later and Aaron Rodgers is posting a QB rating above 100, has only thrown a handful of interceptions and is a promising young QB leading a potent offense. Alex Smith only three weeks ago won his starting job back from a career journeyman. It’s been a long, strange, and dramatic ride for these two quarterbacks – remember, I have spared you another eye-gouging anecdote about how Brett Favre ignored Aaron Rodgers – and on Sunday, they meet on the playing field for the first time.
2. I don’t usually get too serious in this space–football is at its root a game and entertainment. Yet there are some things that can’t be spoken about without dropping the levity.
   

   Unless he wants to spend the rest of the season on the bench like this guy, Aaron Kampman (and others) need to both use and take care of their brains.

   This week, I’ve been coming across more and more articles on concussions in football. I’m not sure why now as opposed to years past – it may have something to do with the recent publicity of Brian Westbrook’s head injuries, but I’m not sure what about him would be so special – but we’re seeing an onslaught of stories revolving around head trauma. Malcolm Gladwell recently wrote a revealing article in the New York Times about the post-football medical situations of concussed players that got a lot of publicity. In any event, the Packers are currently handling a few players who have recently sustained concussions, most notably Aaron Kampman. Kampman’s on target to return to action this week, but should he? We saw what happens in the case of Brian Westbrook when players with concussions return too early to the violence on the field. You’d hate to lose a talent like Kampman due to some medieval conventions of manhood and honor. Aaron, if you’re for some reason reading this instead of watching game film or carb-loading, please stay off the turf until you’re not endangering the most vital organ you have.

3. When you think of Mike Singletary prowling the sidelines, you think of his hard-hitting days as a different mike, the middle linebacker of the fearsome Bears defenses of the 80’s. Wouldn’t he love to have a player like Charles Woodson on his team? Woodson’s a guy who can play bump-and-run coverage, a softer zone, can act like a fifth linebacker, can play center-field safety, can blitz the quarterback, can force fumbles and jump routes, and is as sure a tackler as any NFLer. No surprise that these two teams are among the tops in the NFL when it comes to every major category in rush defense. Take your pick. Rushing average? San Francisco is 1st and Green Bay is 4th. Total yards? San Francisco is 3rd and Green Bay is 4th. First downs by running? Green Bay and San Francisco tied for fourth. The Packers have the tougher challenge this week trying to stop Frank Gore. Ryan Grant has been improving since a sluggish start but the Niners should be able to keep him in check. Unless one of these teams has a surprising breakthrough on the ground, this game should be decided by passing ability and turnovers. If that’s the case, I’m taking the team with the top-flight QB and league-leading turnover differential.

Packers by seven.

PACKERS AT LIONS


4. I’m not much for tradition. You couldn’t really call me a purist in any sense of the word. Orthodoxy doesn’t thrill me. But you better believe I’d feel disturbed inside if I couldn’t get a heaping dish of football to go with my grandmother’s mashed potatoes come Thanksgiving afternoon.
   

   I’m going to take the higher ground and not make the obligatory “watching Detroit is more nap-inducing than tryptophan” joke.

   There has been uproar on the blogosphere the last few years about moving the Turkey Day game away from Detroit (and/or Dallas) and making it a rotating site. I think it’s a moot issue – not too many franchises actually want to operate on a holiday – but it’s an argument propped on the basic premise that yes, football and Thanksgiving are nigh-inexorable. Thanks to the NFL Network and scheduling gurus, we now have three games to watch that day! Green Bay used to travel to Detroit every Thanksgiving through the 50’s and early 60’s and then didn’t go there again for decades. The Packers have won 3 of the last 5 Thanksgiving games, which shouldn’t be surprising considering the sad state of this team. However, it’s a short week, the crowd is always great on the holiday, so you never know. My brother went to one of these games a few years ago and said the place was rocking.

5. The Lions aren’t playing for much more than respect the rest of the year. This is a team that has lost something like 28 of their last 29 games. Matthew Stafford has a great arm but no one to throw it to; even the exciting Calvin Johnson has had some surprising troubles with drops lately. Kevin Smith isn’t a bad running back either, but is he an every-down back? And do they have the offensive line to run-block OR pass-protect (note: you could say the same thing about Green Bay)? This team has already lost five games this year by at least 12 points, including their worst loss thus far, a 26-0 drubbing in week 6 at Lambeau Field. Every week I try to say something positive about the opposing team, some facet that is working well. Kind of hard to figure out where that would be with the Lions. I do think that head coach Jim Schwartz will stress accountability and discipline, and with a few solid drafts and dealings in free agency, the Lions could be competitive once more in a few years. Just not this one.
6. As of writing this, Green Bay is 5-4 and quite in the thick of the NFC wild card race. There are currently seven teams within one game of those final two spots. The Pack stumbled a bit in early November, losing a crucial game to Minnesota then falling supremely flat against an overmatched Tampa squad before bouncing back in that Dallas game. With wins against San Francisco and Detroit, Green Bay would be 7-4 heading into their toughest month of the year. They need to take advantage of any opportunity the schedule gives them. I say they’ll finally show some consistency and do just that.
   Packers by ten.

WEEK ELEVEN PREDICTIONS

COLTS AT RAVENS
Lusty Hometown Booing Game #1. It’s dredged up every time these two teams play (and often even when they’re not playing each other), but who can forget Irsay’s moving-van coup to take the Colts out of Baltimore and into the American Midwest.

We’ll call it poetic justice if Baltimore and its Ravens can defeat Tweety Bird.

While that’s bad – like Grinch-level bad – let us not forget the ignominy of the “Colts” moniker being retained. Where’s the horse racing tradition in Indiana? That’s like suggesting there’s jazz in Utah or a single lake in Orange County, California. Peyton & Co. managed to snatch victory from Belichick’s jaws last week, but I think they’re due for a letdown. Week after an emotional victory, going on the road, a Baltimore team feeling decent about itself with a decided ability to grind the clock with Ray Rice. Yeah, I think the Colts’ perfect season ends this week, which makes it one of my gutsiest calls for UPSET SPECIAL! ever.
Ravens by four.

REDSKINS AT COWBOYS
Apparently, FOX still thinks this is a rivalry that matters, since they’re sending their “A” team of Troy Aikman and Joe Buck to Dallas and broadcasting it to about half the country. I bet Troy Aikman throws just as many touchdowns as Jason Campbell does this week. Don’t think for a second that last week’s win against Denver is a sign of things to come, other than DeAngelo Hall getting burned on sideline routes. That’s pretty much a constant.
Cowboys by ten.

BROWNS AT LIONS
I know. I KNOW. No one wants to watch this game, let alone attend it. But I have to predict every game this year, damn it. There’s a pattern to follow when dissecting the dregs of the NFC. When the Redskins visited Detroit earlier this year, the Lions won, ending their embarrassing streak of 19 straight losses. The Rams managed to end their own atrocious losing streak when they hosted those same Lions. The lesson? The home team wins when crappy meets crappier. (But really, nobody wins.)
Lions by three.

BILLS AT JAGUARS
In Buffalo, the wings are spicy, crispy, hot, and delicious. That’s about all that’s going right for the city. Terrell Owens’ impact has fluctuated between negligible and onerous. The starting QB has been Trent Edwards, then Ryan Fitzpatrick when Edwards’ was injured, then Edwards came back due to Fitzpatrick’s inefficiency, and now Fitzpatrick is back as starter after Edwards decided he would show the coaching staff he could be just as inefficient as a quarterback from Harvard. The Bills decided to channel the ghost of Jim Kelly and run a no-huddle offense, then inexplicably kept the no-huddle after canning their offensive coordinator on the eve of the season. Then this past week, head coach Dick Jauron was canned (in a meeting in Detroit; why does that city only bring forth misery?). The Jags, who have been playing some really inspired ball as of late, culminating in a last-second victory on the road against the media darling Jets, should be able to run all over one of the worst run defenses in the league.
Jaguars by fourteen.

SEAHAWKS AT VIKINGS
Nothing like a cushy late-season schedule, eh Minnesota? Last week the Vikings handled the Lions in the Metrodome. This week, it’s the 3-6 Seahawks, again at home. Next week, they boldly finish the three-game homestand against the Bears and Jay Cutler’s inevitable four-INT game. Well, what can you do? Oh, I mean, besides roll over the depleted ‘Hawks. Minnesota’s 8-1 start has prompted a contract extension for head coach Brad Childress. It’s like this franchise has suddenly forgotten that this is the same Brad Childress that went with a Tarvaris Jackson/Gus Frerotte platoon at quarterback and adamantly defended it. I can’t blame Minny. This country loves goofy contract extensions based on specious accomplishments. For example: Jay Cutler’s recent extension or the 2004 U.S. presidential election.
Vikings by fourteen.

After scoring his second touchdown of the day, Reggie Bush deftly alerts stadium security as to the catwalk girlfriend Khloe Kardashian has inadvertently climbed onto.

SAINTS AT BUCCANEERS
Wow, maybe the FOX line-up is really this depressing that Aikman/Buck didn’t really have a palatable option. Could I try to drum up interest in this game by mentioning that the Saints were oh-so-close from blowing a 4th-quarter lead against the Rams and that Josh Freeman seems to have the mental grit to improvise and make plays against a better team? Yes, but it won’t make a lick of difference.
Saints by thirteen.

FALCONS AT GIANTS
Ah, finally. Another game that means something for both teams. Reading about Matt Ryan and his supposed sophomore slump, it appears that he may be leaning a tad too much on Tony Gonzalez and not targeting the outside enough. Matt, it’s okay to trust Roddy White and Michael Jenkins! These guys got you to the playoffs last year. As for New York, interesting to note that all 53 members of their squad were on the practice field this week. That health, plus a week of rest, plus a home date, plus I don’t see this team dropping five in a row equals Atlanta’s slide continues. That’s good math right there.
Giants by eight.

STEELERS AT CHIEFS
Keeping with a recurrent theme this week, the Chiefs are giving up the 6th-most yards on the ground so far this year. Think one statistic can’t be a decent enough barometer? Try this on: those bottom six teams have combined for a total ten wins. The irony here is that the Pittsburgh Steelers, traditionally thought of as a power-rushing team, are now a pass-first squad. Doesn’t matter that much, I suppose, since Kansas City is built out of suck this year.
Steelers by ten.

CARDINALS AT RAMS
Lusty Hometown Booing Game #2. Except not really, because I doubt there’s anyone still attending Rams games that a) can remember when the Cardinals still played in St. Louis, b) cares that they left, and c) is lucid enough to attend a Rams game and not scream at the realization that he/she has paid good money for this crap. The Cardinals can move to 5-0 on the road and another week closer to an inevitable NFC West crown with a win this week. They’ll get it. Duh.
Cardinals by ten.

CHARGERS AT BRONCOS
Looks like Chris Simms is starting for the Broncos. Looks like the Chargers will complete their annual AFC West rally earlier than usual this year.
Chargers by thirteen.

BENGALS AT RAIDERS
So, Larry Johnson has slandered his bigoted arse from a 2-7 team from a 7-2 frontrunner. Due to Cedric Benson’s nagging hip injury, LJ might even see extended playing time in this game. Who says crime doesn’t pay? It’s enough to make one want to pick against the Bengals–if one were an idiot, I suppose. Plus, rooting for Al Davis is like rooting for diabetes. You don’t want to do that. Jay Cutler will throw a football through your head.
Bengals by seven.

JETS AT PATRIOTS
MENTOR VERSUS COACH! LEGENDARY SPITE AND…oh wait, the Man-Genius got canned after only a few years. Guess Belichick won that one handily. Does anyone think the Jets stand a chance? I mean, Mark Sanchez has thrown one touchdown per game played. I realize Joe Flacco had a similar rate last year but Flacco also threw far less interceptions. The Jets collapse would be the biggest to investigate if it weren’t for the Broncos or that other team that plays in the same stadium. Anyway, after watching Laurence Maroney fizzle for the 85th straight week and destroying my chances at a fantasy comeback in the process, I wondered when the Patriots were, you know, going to figure out how to fix the one glaring weakness in their offense. They have a boatload of backs who can chip, who can run circle routes and checkdown flares, who can even give you 60-70 yards a game. Can you imagine how super-lethal this Patriots team could be if they had a back who could pick up 4-5 yards a carry and keep the clock moving in the second half? Or maybe Tom Brady is the kind of guy who would audible out of a run play on third-and-twenty just to see if he can pick up twenty-one on a go route. Hard to say for the team with the league’s most opaque PR.
Patriots by eleven.

EAGLES AT BEARS (8:20 PM, NBC, SNF)
Watching the Bears/49ers game last week at a bar, I noticed a 40-something fellow next to me swearing profusely any time Jay Cutler would force one of his throws into double-coverage, usually leading to an interception or a near-interception. After ruling out any possibility of him being a Bears fan or possibly a Vanderbilt fan (whatever the hell those are), I surmised the game had fantasy implications for him. I assumed he was one of the poor saps who thought Cutler would be good for twenty points a week and stubbornly started him every week hoping Jay would snap out of it and play a good game. Nope. This man told me, between his fifth and sixth Yuengling in a two hour period, that his opponent that week was playing San Fran’s D and was just raking in points left and right thanks to Cutler. That about sums up Year One of the Jay Cutler Era: Now With a Brand-New Extension! Bears fans are jumping from the Sears Tower in disgust.
Eagles by three.

TITANS AT TEXANS (8:30 PM, ESPN, MNF)

The question America wants to ask the Titans: you abandoned the Oilers’ uniforms for THAT?

Lusty Hometown Booing Game #3: I’m new to this blogging prediction thing, but I have an old standby. Any time you have a chance to pick a team coming off a bye week playing its first home “Monday Night Football” game in years with a top-ten offense going up against a divisional rival that also happens to be the team that used to play in that very city before unceremoniously dropping their great uniforms and heading east to play in Tennessee of all places, you’ve gotta pick that team. Yes, Chris Johnson going against Houston’s bottom-dwelling run defense scares me (there’s that run D thing again!) but it’s not like Vince Young ever accomplished anything in Texas…oh wait. Why am I picking Houston again? Right, right. Emotions over statistics. That’s a formula for success!
Texans by one. I hope.

Last week: 10-5
Overall: 98-46
Upset Special: 6-4