One of the best pass rushers in the league meets the worst pass protectors. This should go over about as well as Larry Johnson’s speech at the NOW headquarters.

We’ve broached the halfway point of the season and we’re now traversing the choppy waters that lead us to the shores of the playoffs. Some teams will sink (incidentally, both the seafaring pirate-based teams are in this category) and some will sail confidently; others, like Green Bay, are treading water for the time being. From now until Thanksgiving weekend are many a playoff hope bouyed or capsized. For now it is time to shuck this misplaced nautical metaphor and set our headings to week ten in the NFL season. Avast! You can always reach me in the comment area below, e-mail me at selfserve@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @greenbayblog.

COWBOYS AT PACKERS

1. Bring on the vitriol. This year the Packers are a mere 1-2 in Mortal Enemy Games: 0-2 against Minnesota and 1-0 against Chicago. They get a shot to win over the better part of America Sunday in a nationally-televised game against Tony Romo and the Cowboys. I must admit: this game frightens me. The Pack are a mediocre 4-4. They’ve done nothing to suggest that they’re playoff-caliber. Their four wins have been against Chicago, St. Louis, Cleveland, and Detroit: combined record of 7-26. They’ve yet to beat a team with a winning record. And as you may have heard somewhere, this team cannot stop the pass rush which is the foundation for the Packers offense to get moving. They tried the retro line last week, with Clifton and Tauscher manning the edge positions and Scott Wells in the middle. It worked for the first half and deconstructed in the second. I won’t waste any more of your time talking about the same old. It’s gotta stop if this team is to win. (Otherwise, welcome to David Carr territory, Aaron Rodgers!)
2. The Cowboys have won four straight, not having lost since week 4 at Denver and if they win in Green Bay don’t look to face a serious threat to their season until December. It’s not implausible to talk about the Cowboys entering the final five weeks with a 9-2 record, especially when one considers Tony Romo’s infallibility in the month of November (which is made all too ephemeral considering the failures of December and January). How are they doing it? Well, a lot of hullabaloo has been made about the emergence of Miles Austin as a serious receiving threat. Maybe in retrospect, that will appear to be accurate for the middle portion of the season, but since his absurd 250-yard 2-TD performance in an OT win against Kansas City, Austin’s numbers have trended predictably backwards, his yardage decreasing (although he has grabbed a score in each of those four wins). He’ll definitely give Dom Capers something to think about, but let us not forget that Roy Williams is a huge disappointment and Patrick Crayton hates going over the middle. If Marion Barber can get over his injuries (or if the Dallas coaching staff ever figures out that Tashard Choice and Felix Jones are fine options as well) it’ll be a huge boon to the staff considering Dallas’ massive offensive line lives to run-block.
3. Just a side comment about Cowboys fans: where the hell do they come from? I’m not counting those who live in Texas (you’re excused, although Houston has to be an attractive option considering their fun offense and better uniforms) nor those older than 45 who can probably still remember an era when Roger Staubach and the myth of “America’s Team” was probably force-fed over the airwaves and the Western genre of films and television wasn’t quite so outdated. But where are these new fans coming from? They’re not all products of being raised in pro-Cowboys households; no, I think many of them still attach to the relative ease of supporting a team that will get national coverage regardless of team talent. Awfully hard to build a legion of Titans fans or Cardinals fans or Seahawks fans or Rams fans when perennial hot-air balloons like Dallas are hogging the stage. By the way, each of those teams listed has not only won a playoff game but has been to the Super Bowl since 1995, something the Cowboys cannot say.
4. I hate to do it…but I have to. I’m going to be a hypocrite and spill another couple hundred words on the condition of the Packers’ offensive line. The main word is cohesion and this line doesn’t have it. They’ve started (by my count) at least four different combinations in eight games and it’ll make five this week if Allen Barbre has to supplant an injured Mark Tauscher at tackle.
   

   “Oh GOD! This is a hot potato! Coach was right – I gotta get this thing out of my hands quicker.”

   But wait – there’s more than just that invisible communicative glue! There seems to be this urban legend circulating NFL circles that the Packers would decrease their sack total if only Aaron Rodgers weren’t holding onto the ball as long as he does. OK, so he’s the team’s second-leading rusher almost exclusively on the part of scrambling. And yes, I’ve watched (as all of you have) plays that should have resulted in tossing the ball out of bounds turn into uncomfortable-looking body checks. Lo and behold, someone has answered the call of Truth. ESPN’s research department came up with a chart that details the length of time between snap and end of play for each of Rodgers’ 37 sacks accrued so far this year. The skinny: given a 4-second duration for a positive passing down, only 1 in every 4 sacks could be judged as Rodgers’ fault. So there! Yeah, that solves nothing, but at least it gets my boy Aaron off the hook. He’s a gamer and needs to be given the chance to string together a few games without feeling skittish.

5. You know what’s probably going to win this game? Offensive efficiency, particularly when it comes to time of possession and turnover differential. Dallas has done a great job running up the gut and to the left side of their line, where the underrated Flozell Adams and Kyle Kozier roam. Dallas is in the top-five when it comes to ten-yard plays sprung from those parts of the O-line. By contrast, Green Bay is 31st rushing to the left or up the middle; they rank 7th running toward the right. The Cowboys come into the game having sacked opposing quarterbacks 20 times and forcing 11 turnovers (6 INT; 5 fumbles recovered). The former is reasonably high; the latter is quite low. On the contrary, Green Bay has only posted a measly 13 sacks but has forced 18 turnovers (12 INT; 6 FR). Who pressures the opposing QB into making mistakes and misreading the defense will probably be the key component of what should be a pretty high-scoring affair.
6. You know how I feel about this Packers team. I don’t bleed green-and-yellow, because that would be indicative of a very serious medical condition, but I fervently support the team that sports those colors on their clothing. Eight games this team has played; eight times I’ve predicted they would win, and I meant it every time. I fully maintain that they had an opportunity, a serious one, to win every single game this year. The Cincinnati game came down to the wire; the Minnesota games required furious comebacks but made for engaging fourth quarters; and Tampa Bay was a simply an aberration (although they played their hearts out and deserved that win). Yet I can’t in good conscience as a predictor with integrity say that Green Bay stands the best chance to win against Dallas, even at the throne known as Lambeau. I want so badly for them to prove me wrong in the most convincing way possible. For now, though, I bow my head and signal thumbs-down for my favorite gladiators.
   
   Cowboys by eight.

   WEEK TEN PREDICTIONS
   
   FALCONS AT PANTHERS
   
   Carolina keeps playing hard even though they’re going to be sitting at home this winter. They beat up the Cardinals and took New Orleans to the wire in consecutive roadies. Now they get another divisional rival that looks to have a few flaws, namely up front on the defensive line. Atlanta let go of free-agent/narwhal Grady Jackson this offseason, hedging that they could find a replacement. They drafted DT Peria Jerry, who subsequently blew out his knee. Jason Babineaux has stepped in and done an incredible job of getting pressure on the QB (8 sacks), but I feel that the run defense is a little suspect. Matt Ryan is hitting the sophomore wall just a little bit the last few weeks – and no, Falcons fans, killing the Redskins at home is not a quality victory – and I think this game is going to come down to the better running game. I’m absolutely stunned I’m doing this, but I’ll pick Carolina as my UPSET SPECIAL! of the week. I’m back above .500 with my Upset Special picks, so I’m feelin’ a bit friskay.
   Panthers by six.
   
   BUCCANEERS AT DOLPHINS
   I can’t even look at the Bucs logo right now; thoughts of last week’s decrepit loss still fester in my mind. Hey, look at this all-Florida tag-team! Once upon a time, I lived in Orlando, and most of the football fans in that city were of the Miami kind despite that city being over three hours’ driving time away. Tampa was about two hours to the southwest and had a decent contingent of fans as well. However, in its wisdom, Orlando was granted “secondary market status” to the Jacksonville Jaguars, whom nobody likes! This made for a lot of consternation, as the last time the Bucs/Phins played in 2005, the game was not shown in Orlando. And to the two teams that have no shot of making the playoffs, yes, this was the most interesting thing I could think of for this game.
   Dolphins by eleven.
   
   LIONS AT VIKINGS

   

   Jay Cutler: Matt Stafford’s personal hero.

   Brett Favre has returned from his bye week hunting trip to find a couple of stray kittens in his abode, namely the Detroit Lions. I must say, the pressure is off Matthew Stafford and his performance last week against Seattle. Jay Cutler managed to be an even worse representation of the NFC North yesterday night when he launched five interceptions, including an absolutely dreadful one in the end zone as time expired, to seal the Bears’ pathetic 10-6 loss to San Francisco. Stafford had to have watched that and thought, hell, this guy is almost getting paid as much as I am and sucks even worse! This is fantastic news for my errant throws. Anyway, they can’t make the line for this game high enough.
   Vikings by seventeen.
   
   BENGALS AT STEELERS
   My buddy and loyal reader of this blog, Devin, has been chewing my ear off about this game since about midnight on Sunday. The Bengals, let’s be honest, haven’t been good since Boomer Esiason left for the Arizona desert, save for the 2005 season in which Kimo von Oelhoffen destroyed Carson Palmer’s leg in the wild card round and Pittsburgh went on their magical run to the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh and Baltimore have swapped superiority over the division for the bulk of the last decade and a half. If Cincy wants to change that pattern, they have to win in the back yard of the champs. The Bengals are an impressive 4-0 in the division and a win this week would give them a huge advantage later in the season. You know what troubles me about Pittsburgh? They’ve already lost Aaron Smith for the year, Travis Kirschke is out for a few weeks, and where is Evander “Ziggy” Hood? I know the 3-4 defense de-emphasizes the role of linemen as playmakers and essentially asks them to clog up running lanes and take up space, but you can’t lose nearly half your line rotation and expect to play at the same level. Cedric Benson must be having sweet dreams of busting through the line…not to mention, Cincy’s defense has actually outplayed Pittsburgh’s this year. And yet, I am picking Pittsburgh. Why? Because you don’t bet against the champs until they give you reason to do so.
   Steelers by two.

   Note from the writer…

   Somehow, the server here at GUFS crashed at some point and erased half my post for this week. I sincerely apologize as I do not have time to re-write the entire post (I too have things going on in my life apart from sportswriting – I know, it’s crazy to imagine!). It’s a damn shame, because I had a great one this week…it even referenced Gary Busey! Next week will be just like it used to, I promise. In the meantime, I’ll just give you my picks.

   Titans over Bills
   Broncos over Redskins
   Saints over Rams
   Jets over Jaguars
   Chiefs over Raiders
   Cardinals over Seahawks
   Chargers over Eagles
   Patriots over Colts
   Ravens over Browns

   Again, I sincerely apologize for this mishap and I hope you’ll come back next week for a better time.

   -Ian Long