Damn it.

Sunday was a day of surprises for me. I discovered that lime chiffon could be just as thrilling a dessert as pumpkin pie. I watched the Lions, of all teams, rally from a 21-point deficit and tie the game on an untimed play with an injured rookie quarterback. I chose not to watch the Eagles/Bears game, one that I had an extreme interest in, to take in a few episodes of Dexter with the girlfriend. I found out that the Steelers reign of magic may have come to an end in an unfashionable circumstance. This is the horror – and delight – of the NFL season in late November. We have but six weeks remaining in the regular season. That means we’ve reached that season between autumn and winter–crunch season. Enough hyperbole! On to the games, yes?

(Ian can be reached via the comments box below, through my email: selfserve@gmail.com, or on Twitter @greenbayblog.)

THINGS I’M STILL PONDERING…

• Despite such surprises, the NFL often runs itself with an extraordinary level of regularity. Some records will be broken, but most will remain intact. There are always going to be putrid teams and there will always be exemplary teams. One of these regular conditions is the violence of the game. This violence breeds injuries. And every year, every team has to cope with season-ending or career-threatening injuries. The Packers suffered through two of these injuries in the same hour: Al Harris (seen above being carted off) and Aaron Kampman are done for the year. Like, done-done. Past the point of no return. These two players, easily two of the top four or five defenders on the field, suffered ACL injuries in the second half of Sunday’s game. This is all like clockwork and does not come without a contingency plan. Who will step up? How will situational tactics be altered? What schemes will be implemented to mask any deficiencies in talent? Early returns suggest rookie Brad Jones will fill in at Kampman’s OLB position and that nickel corner Tramon Williams will step up to take over Harris’ corner spot opposite future Pro Bowler Charles Woodson. I’m more worried about Jones than Williams, the latter having proven himself a capable cover guy and tackler (and one who would be a starting corner on half the teams in the NFL). It’s too early to tell the long-term ramifications, but fans won’t have to wait long – the Pack play Thursday afternoon at Detroit – to find out how defensive coordinator Dom Capers will adjust.
• Let’s not be too pessimistic, for there are many delightful aspects of Sunday’s game that cannot be under rug swept due to a few injuries, as detrimental to defensive cohesiveness as they may be.
  

  All things considered, I do believe the smiles this man releases after scoring a touchdown might just be the cure for cancer.

  For instance, a question: who were those men masquerading as Ryan Grant and Greg Jennings, pushing forth a productive effort as not seen for months? Jennings had his first 100-yard game in two months, catching everything from over-the-shoulder sideline routes to ten-yard slant-and-go touchdowns. That hip-swivel to lose the safety on his way to his second-quarter 64-yard score was his best move all year. While Donald Driver is an excellent partner on the other side of the field, it is the playmaking ability and athleticism of tight end Jermichael Finley that opened up the field for Jennings. Finley made an immediate impact on the game, drawing linebackers and safeties toward his drags and hitches, opening up the field for Jennings (and Driver). Grant also turned in his best performance of the year, a 21-carry, 129-yard game that included a 1-yard touchdown plunge in the fourth quarter and a key 21-yard run late in the game to secure decent field position and kill the clock. I predicted (wrongly, as per the norm) that San Francisco would dominate at the line of scrimmage and corral Grant. Let’s give kudos to the Packers offensive line for systematically wearing down San Fran’s front seven and allowing the offensive game to work to near perfection, especially in the first half.

• I must return to that final drive for a moment longer because of the potential it had to be yet another let down. How many games did Green Bay lose last year on the back of a gassed defense caught well out of position? Did we not witness, merely two weeks prior, a winless Tampa Bay team come back from 11 points down in the fourth quarter? So how clutch was it to see Green Bay take the ball holding a one-score lead with a shade under six minutes remaining and never let San Francisco see the ball again? It’s a rhetorical question–the answer is ultra-clutch. That kind of efficiency, mostly on the run but also via high-percentage passes (that Aaron Rodgers looked to Jermichael Finley on a three-yard pattern on 3rd-and-4 speaks highly of Finley’s athleticism in the open field), had not been seen in Green Bay in quite some time. Let’s hope it foreshadows pleasant things to come in the season of crunch time.
• As for those Niners, that was a pretty heady comeback starting midway through the third quarter. Mike Singletary kept it simple to try and win the game: limit turnovers, get the ball to the playmakers, keep Green Bay out of the end zone. San Francisco’s three touchdowns in the second half were passes to Michael Crabtree (his first ever), Vernon Davis, and Frank Gore. We can safely assume these are the playmakers that will win games for the Niners. The Crabtree and Davis touchdowns weren’t even fantastic individual plays: Crabtree got iso coverage by Al Harris and had the ball placed where only he could get it (yes, with a tad of a pushoff, but these things get missed weekly) and Davis ran the simplest of routes, a vertical seam, and used his height and boxy frame to get the separation necessary to make the catch between the overmatched A.J. Hawk and the safety help coming late. If it weren’t for a stupid interception to Nick Collins – one that gave Green Bay the ball at the San Fran 11 and set up an easy touchdown drive – the Niners may have executed the perfect second half to win the ball game. I maintain that this team is on the rise. They only need consistent quarterback play and some help in the secondary to compete in the NFC West.

MEANWHILE, BACK ON THE RANCH…

Welcome back, drama.
This weekend saw a whopping eight games decided by a field goal or less. Toss in the Eagles/Bears, 49ers/Packers, and Panthers/Dolphins games and ten of this week’s sixteen games were won by a single score.

“Let go of me, Quinn! You’re infecting my open wounds with your special losing disease!”

That made for a lot of sweaty palms and torn cuticles. The best finish would have to be Matthew Stafford tossing a laser to rookie tight end Brandon Pettigrew with no time on the clock to cap a wild comeback against the Browns. The Lions don’t have a lot to cheer for, but that game is probably going to be the biggest highlight Detroit fans get until April’s draft. Late turnovers doomed a few teams. In Dallas, the Redskins were playing excellent defense and had shut out Dallas until very late. Still, with a few minutes remaining, they had the ability to move down the field and get into range for a field goal but Jason Campbell got picked off on a goofy deflection. It wasn’t as bad as Joe Flacco’s late interception in Baltimore, which came deep in Indianapolis territory. Why are you trying to force a checkdown pass in between two defenders in that situation? A field goal gives you the lead nonetheless, Joe. But neither of those outcomes was as egregious and painful to witness as Andre Caldwell’s fumble on a kickoff return with less than a minute remaining handed the Raiders a shocking win against the Bengals. Busting a big return in that situation is not the priority outcome! Don’t worry about going to overtime, Andre–it’s the Raiders and you have a great offense!

Because sometimes, sixty is too small a number.
Two of those games required the extra dosage of football. Overtime in NFL is a wonderfully tense thing, owing to its sudden-death nature (which is why the overtime formats of baseball, basketball, and college football pale in comparison). Sometimes a team doesn’t even get the ball and loses–this so-called tragic outcome is not so for several reasons. First of all, it’s not as common as media and fan outrage would have you believe. I once documented the overtime outcomes of 2002-2008 NFL games and found that only slightly more than one-third of overtime games were won on the opening drive. People forget the obvious detail of overtime – that it is extra time, not equal time. So you can’t handle a game possibly being decided by a coin toss? Better prep your defense a little harder or be more aggressive in regulation. All this is preface to the end of the Giants/Falcons game, where New York won on a Lawrence Tynes field goal and the Falcons never touched the ball. As Jack White says in the fun song “Little Cream Soda,” “Oh well and oh well and oh well.” A great comeback by Atlanta, but I think it’s fair to say the better team won. As for that other overtime game, wherein Kansas City stunned Pittsburgh on the strength of a Chris Chambers catch-and-run and a Ryan Succop (2009’s Mr. Irrelevant!) figgie, there’s more than meets the eye.

When a backup makes your offense back up, it’s a bad sign.
Part of that wild overtime win in Kansas City was an inadvertent knee to Ben Roethlisberger’s helmet that left him doozy and unable to play. Charlie Batch came in for two plays, promptly got injured and the Steelers punted. I guarantee you that the Steelers’ game plan altered a bit once Roethlisberger exited.

Slash wouldn’t have let the game gotten to overtime. He would have personally punted, passed, and kicked the Steelers to a 59-0 win.

Same thing happened in Arizona, when Kurt Warner left the game and Matt Leinart entered to try and clean up what should have been in a shoo-in in St. Louis. Instead, he threw an interception that directly led to a Rams touchdown and made the game far dicier than it should have been. Coming full circle, what would that untimed down in Detroit have looked like if Matthew Stafford had injured his right throwing shoulder instead of the left one? Few teams have a backup quarterback who can step in and allow a coach to utilize the same game planning. The lesson here, is not necessarily that an offense needs to run through a solid quarterback. That much is obvious. The lesson is, you gotta get a great offensive line to keep that quarterback protected!

THE NO-HUDDLE…
What a phenomenal cap to the week in that Titans/Texans duel, huh? You simply have to feel for Houston fans, who seemingly have to endure year after year of heartbreaking losses for a team who is apparently destined for perpetual mediocrity. Kris Brown might not miss a field goal the rest of the year, but two endgame misses in three weeks is enough to cement his legacy as a choker for the 2009 Texans…If the Titans (four straight wins after six straight losses) are the anti-Broncos (four straight losses after six straight wins), does that make Vince Young (shaky passing numbers; career winning record) the anti-Jay Cutler (great statistics; career loser)?…So much for those Broncos putting up a fight against the insurgent Chargers; Denver lacked punch in a meek 32-3 home loss to the new presumptive divisional favorites, but certainly didn’t lack any punches amongst their own players…So the Bills manage to score a 98-yard touchdown (from the usually invisible Terrell Owens) and lose anyway, and then Bill Cowher declines an interview to become head coach…Ho-hum amongst division leaders: the Patriots/Jets, Saints/Buccaneers, and Seahawks/Vikings affairs were close…for about a quarter each…

30 SECONDS OF FAME

I don’t care if it’s a “staple” of the holidays. I don’t care if hearkens to some nostalgic view of childhood, when things like tin trucks speciously spoke of a “simpler time.” And I certainly don’t care if some marketing guru sifted through reams of focus group results and found that “aggressive parodies of 80’s rock/rap crossover songs” overlapped nicely with obvious CGI and cheap toys. This year’s Hess holiday toy commercial flat-out sucks. It has all the marketing value of a Michael Jackson baby monitor. Listen to the chorus about three or four times and you’ll be drop-kicking puppies the rest of the week. Go away, Hess. You’re obsolete.

WHAT I’M WATCHING NEXT WEEK:
All the hullabaloo is focused on the “Monday Night Football” throwdown between the Patriots and the Saints, and rightfully so, but what are you going to watch on Sunday? Check out Cardinals at Titans to see which spotless win streak survives: Arizona on the road or Vince Young in 2009. Steelers at Ravens should be a violent and fun contest as per the norm. And let’s find out just how much Peyton Manning loves to cut up Texans fans when the Colts visit the Texans.

SPECIAL TURKEY’S DAY PICKS!

I already picked Green Bay to win, but I feel that I should note that Matthew Stafford has all but been ruled out of this game with that aforementioned shoulder injury. Daunte Culpepper is a stout backup, in more ways than one, but you have to figure that he doesn’t increase the Lions chance of winning. At the very least, this levels the playing field a bit after the injuries to Kampman and Harris.

RAIDERS AT COWBOYS (4:15 PM, CBS)
So, the Cowboys have scored exactly two offensive touchdowns in the last two weeks, both of them coming late in the fourth quarter. The Raiders scored ten points in less than a minute Sunday. Does that mean I’m suddenly backing a Bruce Gradkowski offense on the road on a short week? I love Polish people as much as the next kielbasa-eating quarter-Pollack, but even I can’t be biased that much.
Cowboys by ten.

GIANTS AT BRONCOS (8:20 PM, NFLN)

Make sure to trim your turkey with the brains of stray kittens and puppies or Eli Manning may attack your house come Black Friday eve.

November’s biggest losers clash in the night game on Thanksgiving in what must have looked like a monster matchup Halloween weekend. Now these two teams are a combined 12-8 and have fallen from the ranks of divisional leaders to scrounging for wild card promise. Chris Simms was so ineffective at quarterback on Sunday that coach Josh McDaniels pulled him for what was essentially a one-legged Kyle Orton. That won’t get the job done against the Giants. It’s a little too early in the week to suggest that Orton could make a full recovery in time for the game; it’s a variable that I feel dictates a huge swing in predicting this game. Neither defense appears to be capable of locking down the other’s offense. Oh, and I hate betting that Eli Manning will do productive things. I just can’t stand that vacant look in his zombified eyes when I’ve bet on the Giants to win. Reminds me of Jake Delhomme’s gaze. Still, there’s a lot on the line. I’m ten-for-ten predicting Giants games this year, which is a hell of a streak. My girlfriend’s a Giants fan. Let’s try and keep her happy, OK?
Giants by three.