“You enjoy beating the Bears, it’s a great rivalry. But when you play the Vikings — Hatfield and McCoys, that’s how it is. All the rules go out. You have to beat them. It’s a must-win game. You can live with splitting with Chicago. You can’t live and you can’t sleep losing to the Vikings.” – Leroy Butler, former Green Bay safety and Favre’s teammate from 1992-2001.” (This and other fun quotes from ex-Packers found here)

There’s a lot to cover this week with a slew of intriguing games, and you better believe I’ll get to every one of them. But for the first time this season, the Packers game has earned its spot at the top of the list. Let’s dive right in, shall we?

PACKERS AT VIKINGS (8:30 PM, ABC, MNF)

1. It all starts with the man-legend, Brett Favre. By now you’re well versed in the hagiography of St. Brett: Two Super Bowls in Green Bay (winning one), three-time MVP, holds almost every major statistical passing record, iron-man starting streak at 270+ games, hates Packers GM Ted Thompson more than he hates a shoddy crawfish po’boy, just a good ole gunslingin’ tractor-drivin’ Wrangler and Sears-endorsin’ man who plays the game like a li’l ‘un. Yep, the trials and tribulations of Brett are part of our national litany at this point. For the better part of two decades, Packers fans weaved his lows (the rehab clinic in 1995; his father’s death in late 2003; the discovery that his wife, Deanna, had breast cancer) and highs (winning Super Bowl XXXI over the Patriots; breaking Dan Marino’s all-time touchdown record in 2007 at the very Metrodome he now calls home) into part of their personal fabric. This transcends the sort of bitter end that Joe Montana faced in San Francisco when a young lefty named Steve Young pushed him out. Montana had been battling injuries, and while beloved in the Bay Area, did not galvanize an entire region to consider him one of their own. Perhaps that kind of thing can only happen in a smallish city (estimated pop. 100,353) where the Packers are almost always the hot topic. Green Bay can’t adequately distract itself with other sports teams the way a Philadelphia or Cleveland or Detroit or St. Louis could (and their best options are the Brewers and Bucks, the poor souls). It’s not hard to look beyond the playful quotes of Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy and Minnesota coach Brad Childress that the game is one of sixteen, that it’ll be intense but maybe not any more than another rivalry game, that Brett is a single member of a group of 53. Tell that to a community whose thread has frayed and they’ll call you a liar.
2. But let’s investigate the other side of the coin, shall we? As many have rightfully noted, Brett’s obligation is to his family first and everything else second, including fanatic loyalties. Football truly embodies Jerry Seinfeld’s tongue-in-cheek remark that sports are all about rooting for laundry — why else would a legion of Favre supporters suddenly find it nauseating to watch him on television because he wears purple instead of green? It’s tempting to reify the emotion of triumph or defeat and deify the quarterback as our personal Sunday God. At the end of the day, Brett Favre is reeling in $12 million for roughly five months’ work, work that Favre has admitted to being more like play. I defy you, in his shoes, to turn that down. The Favre family has established two charities: the Brett Favre Fourward Foundation, a philanthropic group dedicated to various projects in Favre’s home state of Mississippi, and the Deanna Favre Hope Foundation which supports breast cancer education and provides imaging services to those women who couldn’t ordinarily afford it. Favre’s grandmother’s house was destroyed in 2005 due to the ravages of Hurricane Katrina. Hell, if those details don’t touch you, at least consider Favre is a father of two daughters who are of college age, and think how much a four-year tuition costs! Why don’t we take a step back from Brett once the vitriol starts to boil over; his worst crime, it appears, is captivating our attention too much from other trifles in the artificial sphere of the sports world. He’s good for the game, he’s good for storylines, and you’ll either love him or love to hate him.
3. Now that we can all agree to move on from Brett Favre, we can–oh, shoot. There’s more to discuss? Well, I suppose it pertains to the game that Favre turns 40 less than a week after Monday night’s throwdown. Only one quarterback in NFL history has even made the Pro Bowl at age 40 or older and none has even started a playoff game (Don’t think I didn’t get a tickle out of citing the AARP in a bullet about Favre). There’s noticeable rust in his game, and even though he passed for 300 yards – the first time a Minnesota QB has done that since Daunte Culpepper’s heyday – most of those were on checkdowns. His now-legendary toss to Greg Lewis in the back of the end zone to beat San Francisco is the kind of thing Favre will go into the Hall of Fame for, but that play is as much Favre’s classic ingenuity as it is an abysmal failure of the 49ers’ secondary to let the receiver get behind them. Whether it’s because of a decline in his elusiveness or that Minnesota’s massive offensive line is built more for aggressive run blocking than pass protection, Favre has already been thrown for 9 sacks in three games, good for fourth behind only Green Bay’s own Aaron Rodgers (12), Trent Edwards in Buffalo and Brady Quinn in Cleveland (both at 10). To think that Favre’s famous quick release has abandoned him is a recipe for failure; however, you know Dom Capers (who blitzes anywhere from 35-40 percent of downs, depending on whom you read) is scheming up something to exploit the immobility of Favre.
4. With all the hullabaloo over number 4, somehow Adrian Peterson has gotten lost in the fray. You know he has to be licking his chops at the chance to square off against a defense that has allowed 295 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground in his last two appearances against them. Those numbers have to be disconcerting to the Green Bay faithful who watched Stephen Jackson rush for over 100 yards a week after Cedric Benson gashed them for 141 yards at Lambeau. Pro Bowl safety Nick Collins will play Sunday with a chest contusion, but at times he may be the only safety on the field. Dom Capers unveiled his “Big Okie” defense last week against the Rams which is essentially a 3-5-3 alignment where a safety is replaced by a fifth linebacker – in this case, Brandon Chillar. It’s intent is to increase the contain area for running plays and the results are murky at best. The Packers stuffed Jackson nine times for a gain of one yard or less and Al Harris forced and recovered a first-quarter fumble. However, Jackson also broke 8 runs of at least 7 yards or more, including 5 runs of at least 10 yards. That sort of feast-or-famine philosophy will not work with Adrian Peterson, who seems to find a second and third gear once he breaks through the first wall of defense. Furthermore, the “Big Okie” defense directly surrendered two touchdown passes to a unknown tight end named Daniel Fells. Fells ran simple “go” routes intended to go up and over the covering linebacker – who was Chillar, the 5th linebacker brought to the field for the “Big Okie” scheme. We’ll see how often Capers employs “Big Okie,” although his hands may be tied if he doesn’t trust safety Derrick Martin, whose playing time is a direct result of an injury to starter Atari Bigby.


Two years ago, Al Harris knocked Adrian Peterson out of a 34-0 drubbing by the Packers with a sprained LCL. This year, he’ll settle for holding AP under 100 yards.

5. The Packers have been practicing indoors this week at the Don Hutson to acclimate the players to playing indoors at a noisy site. Yes, Green Bay played a road game at a dome last week, but it’s hard to tell if any Rams fans were in attendance considering the mortuary-esque atmosphere. The Metrodome has long caused problems for opposing offenses to relay signals and implement snap counts. False starts and illegal formations are the norm, and often coordinators are forced to use simple snap counts which benefit pass-rush specialists like Jared Allen who are savvy enough to jump such a predictable count. Opponents may also have to resort to silent counts and signals, which have the potential to degenerate into busted plays or worse, turnovers. Simply put, Minnesota is not an easy place to pick up a road win. All-time, the Packers are 23-24 in the state of Minnesota (the Vikings began play in the Metrodome in 1982; before that they played outdoors at Metropolitan Stadium), a stat that is bolstered by the Packers winning 4 of their last 6 games here. Of course, none of those wins have come with Aaron Rodgers at the Helm. In his only appearance at Minnesota, Rodgers threw for less than 200 yards but almost rallied his team for a late win. Mason Crosby’s 51-yarder sliced just wide at the horn and the Vikings prevailed with a 1-point win.
6. Luckily for Percy Harvin, the crowd only gets raucous after the Vikings score or when opposing teams are on offense, otherwise he’d have a hell of an afternoon. Harvin has been battling migraine headaches and some flu-like symptoms over the last week and a half, and it was unsure before last week’s game whether or not he’d play. Harvin played all right, only scoring a 101-yard kickoff return that kept the Vikings within striking distance. He’s scored three touchdowns in three games and if it weren’t for the surprising play of Mark Sanchez, he’d be the early frontrunner for Rookie of the Year. Even more surprising is how Harvin is scoring his touchdowns. Coming out of Florida and drafted by the Vikings, pundits predicted Harvin would work wonders out of the Wildcat. Well, the Vikings haven’t quite unleashed any trickery upon the NFL (although wouldn’t “Monday Night Football” be the perfect showcase to do that?) but have been smart in their utilization of Harvin. Simply put, they give him the ball with a lot of open space in which to work. His touchdown receptions in weeks 1 and 2 (against Cleveland and Detroit) were simulacra of the same design: a quick screen/hitch to an isolated Harvin, who makes a defender miss and scampers in the final eight or so yards for the score. It’s no wonder he has already scored a kickoff return; Harvin’s instincts and athleticism make him extremely dangerous with space between the defender and him. (I will now dig my fingernails into my flesh until I bleed.)


What do Percy Harvin and Luke Skywalker have in common? They’re both incredible in space.

7. A bonus point before I wrap up this analysis: (can you believe we’re approaching 2,000 words on this game alone? Actually, I bet you can, and most of you have probably scrolled down to read about your favorite team. Oh well.) while much of the attention preceding the game will be on Favre, it’s the quarterback from the other locker room that will dictate the outcome of this game. We all know what Old Man Favre is and is not capable of at this point in his career. We have no idea what Aaron Rodgers will do. He’s had some incredibly slow stretches, such as last week where I noted (point 3) Rodgers started the 2nd half with six straight incompletions. Surely, some of the disappointing statistics are a result of dropped balls by Packers receivers which simply cannot continue if they wish to win. And naturally, any semblance of a consistent run attack by Ryan Grant and Co. would supremely benefit play-action schemes. Still, Rodgers has to show he can do more than not lose games (he’s only thrown 13 interceptions in his 19 games as a starter and none so far this year); he has to prove that he can win games, particularly when the crosshairs are on the spot between the 1 and the 2 on his chest.

Final (I swear) thought: I have been thinking all week which way the game might break. There are mornings that I’d be sure Green Bay would pull out the win; by dinnertime, I was 100% convinced the Vikings would take the first round of Favre vs. the World. This game is really up in the air for me at this point, and if that’s the case, I’m going to go with my gut. Packers by one.

WEEK FOUR PREDICTIONS

RAVENS AT PATRIOTS
Two heavyweights duke it out at Foxboro. This is the kind of game where Tom Brady takes Joe Flacco aside after the game and says, “not yet, son.” Then Joe Flacco’s teammates take him aside after the game and offer him a coupon for free eyebrow waxing. Is that too harsh for a QB coming into his own? Fine – after the loss, Flacco’s teammates will drive him over to Charm City Cakes and buy him a fantastic cake shaped like a firetruck. Vroom, vroom, douse those AFC Championship thoughts until after you beat someone reputable!
Patriots by seven.

BUCCANEERS AT REDSKINS
Look at Washington’s schedule from week 2 through week 6: STL, @DET, TAM, @CAR, KC. There’s no reason the ‘Skins shouldn’t go 5-0 against that cream puff parade. But they already struggled to eke out a 2-point win against the Rams at home (um) and they lost to Detroit who hadn’t won a game since George W. Bush was president (double um). There’s no telling how bad this season is going to be for Washington, especially now that prized free agent pickup Albert Haynesworth left last week’s game on a cart, but isn’t that always the way with Dan Snyder’s acquisitions? Everything points to a Redskins loss except the fact that the Bucs, perhaps trying to wrest infamy back from the Lions, managed to accrue less than 100 yards of TOTAL offense at HOME last week against the Giants. Toss in a second-year QB making his first career start on the road and the prediction is pain. Maybe the Bucs are better off starting this guy.
Redskins by eight.

TITANS AT JAGUARS
Kerry Collins threw 13 consecutive incomplete passes to end the game last week. That’s a hell of an unlucky 13, Kerry. To be fair, Kenny Britt, Nate Washington, Justin Gage, and all the assorted mediocre receivers the Titans have collected over the past few years would drop a football even if it were covered with hundred-dollar bills. They’re that unreliable. Maurice Jones-Drew will have fun chewing up Tennessee’s D, which is performing well under expectations. How do I know this? My buddy Devin drafted their defense for his fantasy team. I asked him to describe their performance in twenty words or less, and he gave me this: “[They're] annoying in that they wear baby blue, can’t force turnovers, stole Chris Hope, and are affiliated with Kerry Collins.” Well, then.
Jaguars by seven.

Maybe the Titans’ D would be more feared if they switched back to these badass uniforms.

RAIDERS AT TEXANS
Why do you do this to me, Houston? I want so badly to believe in you. You’re the only NFL franchise never to have tasted the playoffs. Pundits called for your contraction after Mario Williams was drafted over Reggie Bush. Yearly, you’re tabbed the surprise team. And then you go and lose your first two home games, including a head-scratcher last week against the Jags. Please, please, don’t let me down against the moribund Raiders. Texas only has enough room for so much disappointment, and the Cowboys, Mavericks, Rockets, Rangers, and Stars are overflowing the cup.
Houston by six.

LIONS AT BEARS
If a major record of ineptitude falls at Ford Field, only no one in Detroit can watch it, does it still make a sound? The answer to that age-old zen koan is yes, undoubtedly: the sound is a giant exhale, and perhaps some hooting from the monkey being forcibly removed from the Lions’ collective back. Now that that’s over, the Lions can get back to what they do best: losing on the road to division rivals. Since 2004, the Lions have managed to lose 13 of their 15 road games against the Vikings, Bears, and Packers. However, their only two road wins have come at the expense of the Bears (2004, 2006), so maybe this game will be closer than we think. On second thought…
Bears by ten.

“Isn’t winning great, Matt? Yeah, I get kind of tired of it after ten or eleven wins, but I’m sure that won’t happen for you.”

BENGALS AT BROWNS
The Browns are shaking things up at QB and starting Derek Anderson over Brady Quinn for some reason. I guess Eric Mangini is already losing the faith of his team (always a great sign!) and still laughably believes he can salvage this season. By the way, if you Google “Derek Anderson touchdown” you get 3,740 results. Googling “Derek Anderson interception” receives 7,640 results. That means Derek Anderson has a Google TD:INT ratio of nearly 1:2! Sure makes you want to bet on the Browns, yeah?
Bengals by ten.

SEAHAWKS AT COLTS
When I was a young boy, I was obsessed with NFL Quarterback Club ‘95 for the Sega Genesis. I played it so much that I determined one only needed to run three plays to win any given game: HB Shovel Pass, WR Cross, and HB Delay. I’d complete perfect season after perfect season with those three plays until I got bored of winning by so much, then I’d start mucking around with the plays that generally failed. I feel like Peyton Manning right now is in the first stage of that sort of success, where any play he calls is simply going to be successful. Assuming the Seahawks defense is no better than 1995 16-bit A.I. (Vegas calls it even odds), that success will continue through this week. In fact, the month for Peyton goes like this: SEA, @TEN, bye week, @STL. He could be comatose those weeks and still pass for 300 yards. The Colts have a very real shot of going into their November 1st home date against the 49ers undefeated. Oh right, you want a prediction, not lathering.
Colts by fourteen.

GIANTS AT CHIEFS
Whatever. Giants by a million, I guess. Can I place bets on things like Matt Cassel running onto the field with a jersey that says “CASTLE” on the back, or Larry Johnson demanding a trade mid-season, only for someone to tell him the trading deadline has already passed, so he amends it by saying he demands a trade to the Injury Reserve? I hate the 2009 Chiefs.
Giants by sixteen.

“Think if I quit football now I’d still have a shot at Dancing with the Stars?“

JETS AT SAINTS
Here’s a game we can sink our teeth into. It’s the immovable objects (New York’s 2nd-ranked scoring defense) against the irresistable forces (New Orleans’ top-ranked scoring offense). Who wins? It’s really not that hard of a prediction. Mark Sanchez in a noisy dome going up against a much-improved Saints D, playing catch up all the time against Drew Brees and an arsenal so nuclear that President Obama has entered diplomatic talks with Sean Payton about disarmament? Please.
Saints by ten.

BILLS AT DOLPHINS
Jim Kelly! Thurman Thomas! Dan Marino! O.J. McDuffie! If only. Instead we’re stuck with Trent “Stanford Made Me Smart In All Ways Except Football IQ” Edwards, a perpetually-cloudy Terrell Owens, a broken-down Miami defense, and whoever the hell they decide to start at quarterback now that Chad Pennington is out for the year. Oh, it’s Chad Henne? That’s just perfect. Here’s a little aside: when I was in high school, one of my best friends Nick was the quarterback for our football team. Nick put up incredible numbers for a run-based attack and helped give our school its first ever section title. We played in the same league as Chad Henne’s team, and Henne went on to have a relatively decent collegiate career at Michigan and then got drafted by the Dolphins. You know what? Nick put up superior numbers but was considered too short to really be a quarterback beyond the high school level. Drew Brees, anyone? Chad Henne sucks.
Bills by two.

COWBOYS AT BRONCOS
There seems to be a pretty split opinion on the 3-0 Broncos. Are they for real, or did they pad their schedule against the dregs of the league? Well, the Raiders and Browns certainly are awful, but their road win at Cincinnati becomes retroactively more impressive with every week. The Cowboys, on the other hand, are 2-1 but the consensus seems to be that they’re lucky to be there. Their two wins have come against the Buccaneers and Panthers (combined record: 0-6) and have lost at home to a quality team, the Giants. Tony Romo is always good for about two road stinkers a year, and I think this is one of them. The Broncos should be able to grind out some tough running yards and control the clock long enough to wear down the Cowboys in the oxygen-depleted atmosphere of Denver.
Broncos by six.

RAMS at 49ERS
Yeah, right.
49ers by fourteen.

CHARGERS at STEELERS (8:20 PM, NBC, SNF)
The defending champion Steelers look pretty shaken up: they couldn’t protect an 11-point fourth quarter lead against the Bengals, a team they absolutely own. Their only win came in overtime against a crappy Tennessee team. You can feel the air just getting sucked out of a squad most picked to defend their AFC North title. On the other side of the ball, the Chargers are a dumb Norv Turner call away from 3-0 despite their plethora of injuries. I think when Norv parallel parks in downtown San Diego, he finds the smallest possible space and spends forty-five minutes just trying to ram that car in there, only to end up smashing his rims against the curb and costing him a thousand dollars worth of repairs. Rooting for the Chargers is really a losing battle with Norv as the head coach, but I will nonetheless pick them as my UPSET SPECIAL for the week! (Note: if Troy Polamalu were playing this game, there’s no way I’d pick against him. Not after seeing this commercial. Are you really going to doubt a modern-day Samson whose strength has clearly increased with the reformulated Head and Shoulders?) And yes, this does count as an Upset Special even though the Chargers have the better record since Vegas is giving them six-and-a-half, which is way, way too high even with the Steelers at home.
Chargers by three.

BYE WEEK BITES
Arizona looks to figure out how exactly they’re supposed to be defending their NFC West title if their offense keeps sputtering. Their defense has long been questionable but they always had the guns to survive a shootout. Larry Fitzgerald has 2 TDs in three games but players like Anquan Boldin, Tim Hightower, and even Kurt Warner absolutely have to perform better.
Philadelphia has to be feeling pretty confident going into their bye week. They lost to New Orleans – no big mark against Philly – but rebounded against Kansas City to score a win without Donovan McNabb behind center. Most importantly, they learned that LeSean McCoy (Pitt alum!) is a decent Brian Westbrook facsimile. McNabb will likely return next week.
Carolina looks abysmal and there’s no way around it. If it’s not the injuries that are killing them, it’s Jake Delhomme and the sleepwalking offense. This team is in an absolute tailspin and I fear John Fox’s job is on the line.
Atlanta got manhandled in Foxboro last weekend but still managed to keep it close before the fourth quarter. This is a proud team and Matt Ryan is a good, young leader. As long as they’re patient with Michael Turner, targets like Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White will keep this offense moving. The defense has been a nice surprise, particularly free agent pickup Mike Peterson, who seems to have found new life in Atlanta.

That wraps it up for the longest weekly preview I’ve ever written. If you’ve got any grievances, complaints, insults, what have you, feel free to leave a comment below and I’ll get back to you once I’m done sobbing. You can also receive updates at twitter.com/greenbayblog.

Last week’s picks: 10-6
Overall: 31-17
Upset Special: 1-2