OK, that headline is admittedly using a dated reference. But after reading other Packers blogs, “expert” analysis of this year’s draft, and scores of mock drafts, I go to sleep at night with a monotone and moribund repetition through my head: “Number nine. Number nine. Number nine.”

The Packers better get it right this year with the ninth overall pick.

They’re coming off a 6-10 year in which they jettisoned a future first-ballot Hall of Famer who had just led the team to an NFC Championship game which they lost in OT. They had a 4-2 divisional record, but that includes 2 wins against that NAIA team from Detroit. A legitimate advantage at Lambeau dissipated into a 4-4 record on their home turf. Seven of their ten losses were by four points or less, including an absurd stretch of four consecutive games last year where Green Bay lost a fourth-quarter lead and ended up losing the game. They were 0-2 in OT (the offense never touched the ball in either matchup) and lost a close divisional matchup in Minnesota when Mason Crosby’s 52-yarder at the end of regulation sailed just wide. It was a season of heartbreaks and almost-coulda-beens.

This year, with patience evaporating for GM Ted Thompson and head coach Mike McCarthy, the team is shifting to a 3-4 defense, corresponding with a complete overhaul of the defensive coaching staff. Dom Capers and Kevin Greene highlight a new staff expected to transform the athleticism of a talented group into results. And we can all hope that we don’t have to hear the phrase “pad level” once this summer.

The draft is how you build a sustainable team that has success in the long-term. Take a look at the Steelers, winners of two Super Bowls in the last four years. Every single first-round pick since 2002 is a starter for Pittsburgh, save for last year’s pick, Rashard Mendenhall (IR) and Plaxico Burress, who won a Super Bowl in New York before experimenting with a new line of explosive sweatpants. Names like Troy Polamalu and Ben Roethlisberger are not accidental finds but the result of intense scouting and prudent drafting.

What do the Packers have to show for their recent crop of first-round picks? Thompson’s first pick ever as GM of the packers was Aaron Rodgers, who fell to them at pick number 24 after San Francisco decided to pass on him and pick up Alex Smith instead (how many Niners fans are crying for a mulligan?). In 2006, they went the safe route and scooped up LB A.J. Hawk, who has been serviceable but nothing resembling game-changer.¹ One year later, Thompson chose his most infamous pick: DT Justin Harrell out of Tennessee.

I remember on that day in April of 2007 I was being shuttled around various airports after one of my flights got canceled. I rushed to a sports bar in the Detroit Metro airport just in time to see Roger Goodell announce the strange selection of Harrell, who had been tagged as injury-prone during his time at Tennessee. I wanted Greg Olsen then (and wouldn’t mind it now, either) and to this day, Harrell hasn’t come even close to justifying such a high pick. With a switch to a 3-4, he may fit in as a DE, but time will tell if he’s just another Jamal Reynolds.

Last year, perhaps feeling skittish after the Harrell debacle, Thompson parlayed his first-round pick into a couple later picks. Jordy Nelson was the first player to be taken by the Packers, and so far looks like a decent third or fourth option at wideout. Green Bay had two other 2nd rounders and weirdly used one on QB Brian Brohm. The other went to selecting CB Pat Lee. Neither has shown anything worthwhile as of yet. Just for kicks, Thompson decided to pick up another QB in Matt Flynn in the 7th round. Perhaps Thompson is trying to capture lightning in a bottle and farming out a bunch of decent QBs while Rodgers controls the team for a decade (think of the career paths of Favre backups Matt Hasselbeck, Aaron Brooks, Mark Brunell, Kurt Warner, even Doug Pederson was an NFL starter).

But this year…this year we need an impact player. A top-ten player needs to contribute almost immediately to justify the high selection and high price tag. Who do I see sliding to us? Who could we use? Glad you asked, bud. In order of how much I will be salivating should Goodell call these names on Saturday:

1. B.J. Raji, NT, Boston College. I don’t care if he tested positive for marijuana as long as he doesn’t play stoned on Sundays. The guy is an absolute beast (6′2″, 337 lbs) and would shore up what many consider to be the keystone position of the 3-4 defense. Without a stout tackle, the 3-4 linebackers won’t be nearly as freed up to stop the run gaps or pressure the QB. If he tumbles past teams that could use him like Seattle, Cleveland, and Jacksonville, he will be a treat to see in green and gold.



2. Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi.Let’s face it – Jason Smith is going somewhere in the top 3. Eugene Monroe will be gobbled up somewhere between 4-6. That leaves the only two tackles at the 9-spot to be Oher and Andre Smith. The latter has the frame to be incredible, and I’m not nearly as worried as others are by his combine walkout (who cares about the combine anyway?) or his agent switcharoo. Frankly, the only reason I don’t have Smith at this position is because I recently saw an ESPN Outside the Lines report on Tony Mandarich and I broke out into hives at the thought of taking another massive tackle with character issues. Oher would be a suitable replacement for the fragile-kneed (and currently unsigned) Mark Tauscher. In a league where you can’t win without a viable QB, you can’t win without keeping that QB upright.



3. Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB, Texas.Yes, I am worried about injuries, if you couldn’t tell by my paragraph about Justin Harrell. And yes, we do have a few intriguing possibilities for the 3-4 OLB position (one of those spots is guaranteed to go to pass-rushing extraordinaire Aaron Kampman). The real question you gotta ask is: does Orakpo have a higher ceiling than Brady Poppinga or Brandon Chillar or Desmond Bishop? You betcha he does. Whatever Green Bay does here, they should not take PSU DE/OLB Aaron Maybin. Living in Pennsylvania, I see enough Penn State football to know that they are not Linebacker U. anymore (and have not been for some time). Avoid!



4. Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech.I know what you’re thinking. Why the hell would Green Bay waste a high draft pick on the one position where they’re absolutely loaded? Because you don’t pass up on talent like Crabtree, dummy. Have you seen how strong this sucker is? You put him on the field with Jennings and teams will have no idea where to spread their coverage. Besides, while Donald Driver ties Greg Jennings for the Colgate Cavity Patrol Award for Best Smile, he’s getting up there in years and there’s no guarantee that James Jones will stay healthy enough to assume a greater role (nor that Jordy Nelson will continue to develop). I doubt he’d fall past both Oakland and Jacksonville, but there’s a slim margin of plausibility, especially if Oakland is enamored with Jeremy Maclin’s raw speed and Jacksonville scoops up Raji.



5. Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU. I’m not as high on him as others, but that’s simply because I don’t know as much about him as the other candidates. I hear he’s got a hell of a motor and a bit of an intense streak, which sounds pretty good to me. Besides, you can never have enough of a D-line rotation, particularly later in the year when those hours spent in the trenches will wear down even the stoutest of ends. He’ll have to be a better run-stopper than pass-rusher in the 3-4, though.



Our areas of focus are clearly OT and the defensive line. If we happen to pick up a few linebacker and cornerback prospects, I’d be pleased. There’s no reason to pick another QB this year unless something absurd happens between now and Saturday (i.e. Aaron Rodgers tries on some of Plax’s sweatpants). RB might be worth a look, but I’m oddly confident in the bouncebackability of Ryan Grant. I just made up a word, but if Bud Light can do it, so can I. Brandon Jackson and Deshawn Wynn – for the love of God, stay healthy, Deshawn – make a decent backup tandem. Frankly, I’ll be happy if we get one or two starters out of the group and we don’t draft a freaking punter in the second round. Paging B.J. Sander.

Green Bay is in a sweet position to make a turnaround. They have a favorable schedule (one of the five easiest in the league based on last season’s cumulative records), a chance for a hot start, and an early bye week to work out any kinks in their 3-4 alignment. Drafting an impact player is a must not just for the security of Thompson and McCarthy, but for the playoff hopes of Green Bay.

^{1. In defense of Thompson, that 2006 first-round class isn’t exactly littered with players that Green Bay could use. Perhaps TE Vernon Davis (selected by San Francisco at 6) or DT Haloti Ngata (Baltimore at 12) would fit this team better. Thompson does deserve kudos for trading away me-first washout Javon Walker to Oakland and scooping up the significantly more productive Greg Jennings in the second round this year.}